Manchester United and Chelsea open Sunday Matchweek 10 of the English Premier League. Kickoff is set for 11:30 a.m. ET from Old Trafford in Manchester.
For Manchester United, Sunday is all about Ruud van Nistelrooy's Premier League managerial debut after he took the reins on an interim basis following Erik ten Hag's dismissal. That decision came early enough for the van Nistelrooy to take the helm once already in the Leagues Cup Wednesday during a 5-2 home thrashing of Leicester City.
Chelsea continue to go as far as breakout star Cole Palmer will take them. The 22-year-old already has seven goals and five assists, which put him currently on pace to become only the second 20/20 man in the Premier League era (following Arsenal's Thierry Henry in 2002-2003.)
Here is my Manchester United vs. Chelsea prediction.
Manchester United vs. Chelsea Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Manchester United Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -120 | 3.5 +115o / -150u | +150 |
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -120 | 3.5 +115o / -150u | +155 |
- Manchester United vs. Chelsea moneyline odds: Man United +150, Draw +275, Chelsea +155
- Manchester United vs. Chelsea over/under: 3.5 goals (over +115, under -150)
- Manchester United vs. Chelsea pick: Chelsea over 2.5 goals (+260, Fanatics)
I am backing Chelsea to score over 2.5 goals in Manchester United vs. Chelsea.
Manchester United vs. Chelsea Premier League Preview
One question to ponder coming into this match is how much van Nistelrooy will try to stick with ten Hag's structure or try to begin installing incoming permanent manager Ruben Amorim's ideas.
Amorim's appointment was made official this week. And in the same way, ten Hag has started every match in a 4-2-3-1 this season, Amorim's Sporting CP began every game in a 3-4-3. His arrival date is unclear, but van Nistelrooy said he expects to remain in charge for the next couple of matches.
It's a little reminiscent of Crystal Palace last winter, who shifted to a 3-4-3 under caretaker boss Paddy McCarthy before Oliver Glasner officially took over. And if a formation swap does happen, that could certainly mitigate any new-coach bounce. Palace looked marginally better in its early games in the new system, but it took a month before they truly found their footing and rattled off an excellent season-ending run.
Chelsea have faced a 3-4-3 twice in the league this season and won the expected goals battle by a combined 3.2 xG over those two contests, including their strongest away performance of the campaign, a 3-0 win over West Ham.
But we don't know if Man U will make that switch. What we do know is Chelsea have been better defensively under Maresca than in the previous season with Pochettino and has yet to concede more than two goals or allow more than 2.0 xG in a league game.
Conversely, Palmer has been far less dangerous as a provider in away games this year. Part of that is a regression to expected assists projections from a season ago, but part of it also feels like a discernible shift in tactics as an away side under Chelsea's new Italian boss.
So should we be leaning toward an under here? Maybe, if the 3-4-3 does materialize. But until then, I don't see an obvious lean on a normal side or total. So, I think the better bet until team sheets come out is to leverage team tendencies.
The League Cup notwithstanding, Chelsea is still the more explosive attacking side, and Man U is still the team with the kind of vulnerabilities that can occasionally lead to big vulnerabilities for the opposition attack. In other words, while I think the moneyline is fairly sharp here, I can certainly see Chelsea adding to their lead if they do get one.
So the move for me is to play a small but aggressive wager on Chelsea to exceed 2.5 goals scored at +260 and an implied 27.8% probability. They've done it twice on their travels already, and Man U has already shipped three goals to Liverpool and Tottenham at home.
If you're looking for an item for a multi-game parlay, I also think there's value in Man U's team total under 2.5 goals (-375, Fanatics) against a much-improved Chelsea rearguard. And I also like Man U under 1.5 (-105, Fanatics) if they do come out in a 3-4-3.
Manchester United vs. Chelsea Prediction
My Pick: Chelsea over 2.5 goals (+260, Fanatics)
