Man United vs. Liverpool Odds
| Man United Odds | +375 |
| Liverpool Odds | -160 |
| Draw | +340 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (+115 / -165) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Monday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
When Manchester United and Liverpool take the pitch, the stakes are typically high as the two compete for glory across various competitions.
However, in Monday's Premier League fixture, these sides are just trying to earn their first respective victory of the season after woeful starts.
The Red Devils lost games to Brighton & Hove Albion and Brentford, while the visiting Reds have drawn with Fulham and Crystal Palace.
So, who has the edge in this vital contest? Let's take a look to see if we can find some betting value.
Manchester United
To be brutally honest, you couldn't have imagined a worse start for United.
After a summer of drama surrounding Cristiano Ronaldo, the team put forth awful performances. The Red Devils were outclassed and outsmarted against Brighton in its opening loss before generating 0.49 fewer expected goals against Brentford in a 4-0 defeat.
In the two games, United accounted for a negative xG differential overall, which is something that's representative of a team in the bottom half of the table.
It won't get any easier now for the hosts since they're now tasked with facing one of the most difficult EPL teams holding the pressure in the world.
By The Numbers
- 0.2 — Ronaldo has produced just 0.2 xG this season. The star is reportedly seeking a way out of the club once again.
- 0.13 — Brentford scored two goals last weekend that combined for this number of xG, which is incredibly rare. The Bees scored due to two blunders goalkeeper David de Gea conceded.
Liverpool
The Reds opened their season with an impressive 3-1 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield, but have been poor since then.
While Liverpool totalled a 1+ xG differential against Fulham and 0.6 xGDiff against Crystal Palace (despite being a man down), momentary lapses have upended the side.
Whether it has been Virgil van Dijk making uncharacteristic mistakes in key moments (see Fulham's penalty) or Darwin Núñez getting sent off after being frustrated against Palace, it hasn't looked like the usual Liverpool.
Playing the Red Devils adds just as much pressure on them as it does their rivals, but we'll get to see what this iteration of manager Jürgen Klopp's team is made of early in the season.
By The Numbers
- 2 — Liverpool has had just two players sent off since the beginning of 2020. In just his second EPL game, Núñez learned a harsh reality of playing in the English top flight.
- 2018 — The last time Liverpool lost an EPL game to United was in 2018. This is a team that Klopp is comfortable facing, plus the Reds have picked up some crucial results in this fixture over the years.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Though Manchester United and Liverpool have had similar starts, the numbers and pedigree are telling when it comes to this matchup.
As noted above, the Reds haven't lost to the Red Devils in the league play in four years. It has only lost twice in 14 fixtures across all competitions. On paper, these teams aren't on the same level and the statistics back that up.
Liverpool has posted the fourth-best xG total and the second-best xGA total in the league, all while playing poorly. That indicates the Reds will be just fine, if you had any concerns.
On the other hand, United is fifth in xG and 13th in xGA so far. Add in the fact they're serious goalkeeping confidence issues, the managerial gap between Klopp and Erik ten Hag, and general high-level experience in these squads, and I'm comfortable backing the Reds.
Even at this steep price, I trust Liverpool enough to secure a vital result and get their EPL campaign rolling at Old Trafford.
The Pick: Liverpool ML (-160)
