Manchester United vs. Newcastle Odds
| Man United Odds | +115 |
| Newcastle Odds | +230 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network |
| Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Manchester United looks to make their way into the top four against a resurgent Newcastle side.
After getting obliterated in the Manchester Derby, United rebounded nicely, beating Everton 2-1 at Goodison Park. They then beat Omonia Nicosia in the Europa League. Manchester United is in a pretty big look ahead spot as well, as the have a date with Tottenham on Wednesday.
Newcastle have been in great form to begin the Premier League season and are coming off a 5-1 win last time out against Brentford. With the significant investment that has come into the club, the expectations and status for Newcastle have risen to where they should be on par with the big six.
So, this is a perfect opportunity to prove that.
Man United Not the Strongest Side
First, let’s read off their defensive numbers: 1.49 npxG allowed per 90 minutes (16th in the Premier League), 15.25 shots allowed per 90 minutes (15th in Premier League), 1.68 xThreat allowed per 90 minutes (17th in Premier League), and a field tilt of 46.07% (13th in the Premier League). Those defensive numbers are even worse than last season.
Now, all of that would be fine if Manchester United had an elite counter-attacking offense, but they are only averaging 1.24 npxG and 12.25 shots per 90 minutes, which are ninth in the Premier League.
Even if we go from the January transfer window on to today, Manchester United have a +0.02 xGD per 90 minutes, while Newcastle are at +0.25 xGD per 90 minutes.
Newcastle A Prime Non-Big Six Team
Newcastle’s offense has not only been the best outside of the big six, but in the entire Premier League as well.
The Magpies are averaging 1.93 xG per match, have created 16 big scoring chances (second in the Premier League), are averaging over 15 shots per 90 minutes, are averaging over 19 box entries per 90 minutes, and have an xThreat of 1.67 per 90 minutes, which is third in the Premier League.
They’ve only played two big six sides, created 1.8 xG against Manchester City (the only team this season to create over one xG from open play against them) and only 0.8 xG against Liverpool, but Bruno Guimares, Allan Saint-Maximin, and Callum Wilson did not play in that match.
Defensively, Newcastle is only allowing 1.01 npxG per 90 minutes, and they are pressing very effectively this season with a PPDA of 8.9, forcing 96 high turnovers, which is the most in the Premier League this season.
Manchester United is 12th in offensive PPDA and pressure success rate allowed.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Manchester United is criminally overvalued in this matchup. All of the advanced metrics suggest that Newcastle is a way better side at the moment.
I have this match projected fairly close to a pick'em, so I love the value on Newcastle +0.5 at -117.
The Pick: Newcastle +0.5 (-117)
