MLS Betting Odds & Picks: Philadelphia vs. New York Red Bulls, Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston (Tuesday, Aug. 25)

Philadelphia vs. New York Red Bulls Odds

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Things continue to get back to normal in Major League Soccer, with several matches taking place Tuesday across the North American landscape.

Highlighting the early portion of the card is a showdown between Eastern Conference foes Philadelphia and the New York Red Bulls.

Philadelphia enters the match fresh off a scoreless road draw against the New England Revolution. It was a positive result for the Union, who made it all the way to the semifinal round of the MLS is Back tournament before a 2-1 loss against eventual champion Portland ended their run in Orlando.

On the other side, New York had a strong debut in its first match since the restart of the regular season when it earned a 1-0 shutout win against rival New York City FC at Red Bull Arena.

After taking a look at the data, it’s clear not much separates these clubs which really don’t have the best overall numbers. Philadelphia sits at 3.1 expected goals, but carries a dismal 4.9 expected goals against for a minus-1.8 xGDiff and -0.61 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

New York is slightly worse than Philadelphia in the same categories (2.9 xGF/5.8 xGA = -2.8 xGDiff and -0.95 xGDiff/90), putting it at a slight disadvantage in this matchup.

When it comes to its offenses and defenses, these teams don't score a lot of goals, but don't concede many either. Philadelphia and New York have almost identical goals for/goals against numbers (Philadelphia – 7 GF/7 GA and New York – 6 GF/7 GA) in their six respective matches this season, making this a pretty even match.

That said, I am backing the total to stay under the number due to the fact this game has all the makings of being a low-scoring, tight affair.

The number for under 2.5 total goals is sitting at +112, but I highly recommend buying the half point to take it to three goals at a slightly higher price to give yourself some protection.

The Bet: Total Under 3 Goals (-134) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

Sporting Kansas City vs. Houston Odds

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Sporting Kansas City come into the contest on the heels of an impressive road win against Minnesota United, which vaulted them to the top of the Western Conference standings.

That victory moved Sporting Kansas City to 5-1 on the season for 15 points. The franchise has racked up an impressive 15 goals along the way and conceded just six in that stretch of games.

As for Houston, it wasn’t as successful in its scoreless draw against FC Dallas in the latest edition of the Texas Derby. The Dynamo, who are winless and 0-4-2 on the season, held a 17-7 edge in shots in the match, but couldn’t capitalize on their opportunities and settled for one point.

When it comes to the numbers, Sporting Kansas City has a distinct advantage over Houston. The hosts are currently at at 3.9 expected goals and 3.4 expected goals against for a plus-0.5 xGDiff and +0.18 xGDiff/90 minutes.

In contrast, Houston is well behind its foe (3.1 xGF/3.9 xGA = -0.8 xGDiff and -0.26 xGDiff/90) in the same categories.

With that in mind, I am playing Sporting Kansas City to cruise to the home triumph. Manager Peter Vermes’ team is the deeper, more talented side and has everything it needs to make a serious title run this season.

Play Sporting Kansas City with confidence, but get this current number while it’s there. I could see it ballooning close to -200 before kickoff, so jump on the current price while you can.

The Bet: Sporting Kansas City (-186) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]