MLS Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Los Angeles FC vs. Philadelphia Union (May 7-8)

With the 10th week of the Major League Soccer regular season approaching, the primary transfer window is closed and we're beginning to understand a little bit about each team's identity.

Expansion club Charlotte FC is a more stylish team than many expected and tough to beat at home. It welcomes an Inter Miami side showing more resiliency in the second season under manager Phil Neville.

Los Angeles Football Club and the Philadelphia Union have emerged as their respective conferences most consistent early performers, making for an exciting late Saturday nightcap.

And Nashville SC and Real Salt Lake might be dueling for the unofficial crown of best "under-the-radar" Western Conference contender on Sunday's card.

That said, let's take a look at our best bets for the weekend slate.

Charlotte FC vs. Inter Miami Odds

Several Inter Miami absences — including possibly leading scorer Leonardo Campana — have the moneyline moving in Charlotte’s direction. Yet, for me, those circumstances also seem likely to produce a low total.

Charlotte has experienced a lot in is first 10 games an expansion team, but have yet to face an opponent truly content to park the bus. That describes Miami's away posture well under Neville, even when it's fully healthy.

With Camapana, Gonzalo Higuain and his two starting center backs unavailable, the Herons would be naive to try and play a flowing encounter against the Carolinians.

So, can Charlotte solve it? Maybe eventually, but I think they’ll struggle for a bit. And the club is already showing signs of a team that hits unders at home more often than not — in three of four so far to be exact.

That said, I’ll take the total to stay beneath 2.5 goals at -112 odds and an implied 52.8% probability.

Quillen's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-112)

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LAFC vs. Philadelphia Odds

Los Angeles FC, which is oddsmakers’ Supporters' Shield favorite, has won four of its five home games by multiple goals. And make no mistake, I don't think the club is fraudulent.

However, right now I believe in Philadelphia even more, especially in the context of a game where the side is the road team. Jim Curtin’s men also play a transition-based style that makes the Union an elite MLS away team and perhaps a good foil stylistically for the match host.

The analytics back that up. At home, LAFC has a strong +0.75 non-penalty expected goals difference per 90 minutes, but on the road, the visitors are even better, leading opponents by +0.80 NxG per 90 across their four away matches.

And while those sample sizes are small, the Union have easily played the tougher opposition in their away schedule than LAFC's home slate.

Los Angeles has also succeeded partly by weaponizing its depth late in games. That's harder against a Union squad that has just as many late-game options.

I already bet Philadelphia on the moneyline and used it for the Action Network Global Underdogs feature. I’ll add a Double Chance wager of Philadelphia or Draw at +130 odds and an implied 43.5% probability.

Quillen's Pick: Double Chance — Philadelphia or Draw (+130)

Nashville vs. Real Salt Lake Odds

Before Nashville SC opened GEODIS Park last Saturday with a 1-1 draw against Philadelphia, the Coyotes played their first eight games of 2022 on the road.

Going back further, Nashville has played only four of its last 20 regular season matches in front of the home fans dating back to the 2021 season.

So, it’s easy to forget manager Gary Smith’s side played far more offensive home encounters than most remember for much of the 2021 season. Nashville was only consistently conservative on the road. At home, it was Jekyll and Hyde, with four more goals scored in eight of its 17 games and two or fewer scored in another eight others.

Salt Lake has shown similar turbulent tendencies on the road in manager Pablo Mastroeni’s tenure. It’s almost as if the club arrives at an opposing venue intent on being stubborn, but sometimes get coaxed out of it by a wily opponent (or an early goal conceded.) on occasion.

Since Mastroeni assumed the managerial reins midway through last season, five of 14 Real Salt Lake away matches have featured one or fewer goals. Six have featured four or more as well.

Everyone else seems to be hitting the under here. For me, I love selling a goal and taking an aggressive shot at the total going over 3.5 goals at +320 odds and an implied 23.8% probability.

Quillen's Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (+320)