The 11th week of the Major League Soccer season features storylines aplenty.
In Colorado, the defending regular-season Western Conference champion hosts Supporters' Shield leader Los Angeles Football Club.
Back in the eastern part of country, Charlotte FC attempts to run its home winning streak to five matches when it faces white-hot Montreal. And on the banks of the Delaware River, Philadelphia hosts the New York Red Bulls in a clash at the top of the Eastern Conference table.
Without further ado, here are my best bets for Saturday's matches.
Colorado vs. LAFC
| Colorado Odds | +150 |
| LAFC Odds | +165 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-140 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Colorado is unbeaten in 21 consecutive home league matches, but logistical challenges could help extinguish that streak when LAFC comes to town.
The Rapids were supposed to play their U.S. Open Cup fourth-round tie on the road against Minnesota United on Wednesday, but Mother Nature had other ideas. Inclement weather forced a halt the match, which was completed Thursday, giving the Rapids only 48 hours to recover before this contest.
Waiting for them will be an MLS-best LAFC squad that had 36 extra hours to bounce back from a relatively stress-free 2-0 Open Cup win over Portland.
Even before those issues of timing, the Black & Gold have taken a greater haul of points from their away games (9 of 12) than the Rapids have from home encounters (10 of 15) this season. The Rapids' xG home numbers are virtually identical (and a shade worse) than LAFC's away figures.
And LAFC's ability to change games off the bench — eight of its 23 goals this season have been scored by substitutes — also makes it easier to tackle playing at altitude.
By itself, all of these stats come from small enough sample sizes to question. However, taken together, it's enough to convince me LAFC should be slight favorites in this meeting. I'm backing the visitor at +165 odds and an implied 37.7% probability to win this game outright.
Quillen's Pick: LAFC ML (+165)
Charlotte vs. Montreal
| Charlotte Odds | +120 |
| Montreal Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -120) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Charlotte is also putting a strong home run on the line — in the form of four consecutive victories — when they welcome CF Montreal on Saturday night.
Frankly, the betting market is buying too much into it.
There are major caveats in three of Charlotte's home victories. New England was without both its top scorers from a season ago. Atlanta had just lost its first-choice center forward and its first choice defensive midfielder. Inter Miami was playing without both starting center backs.
Montreal offers no such softness and will benefit from a full week of preparation, while the home side played in the U.S. Open Cup in midweek.
And after crashing out of the CONCACAF Champions League, Montreal has gone unbeaten in seven matches.
As for the splits: Montreal's xG difference away from home is +0.4 across six home games. And the first three of those contests were played in close proximity to the CCL competition. Charlotte's xG difference at home is -2.3, even with a relatively modest home slate.
Bottom line, the wrong team is favored. So, I'm backing Montreal to pick up its sixth victory of the season at +210 odds and an implied 32.3% probability.
Quillen's Pick: Montreal ML (+210)
Philadelphia vs. RBNY
| Philadelphia Odds | +135 |
| RBNY Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110 / -155) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
The Red Bulls, who are perfect on the road this season, would set an MLS record with a sixth consecutive away win to open the season in this matchup.
Their pressing style also means there could be some tactical reasons as to why they've been a better team away. And that's what has led the line to creep in their direction.
However, while their tactics remain the same in Philadelphia, the host will present a mirror image rather than a foe who wants to dominate the ball.
And across the board, the Union is a little better, more seasoned and particularly consistent than the Red Bulls. This is especially true at forward, where any of Philadelphia's four options at the striker positions would probably immediately become New York's de facto starter.
Overall, these teams are virtually equal in terms of points earned and xG difference. However, only Philadelphia has played LAFC, New York City FC and Columbus, which are three of the league's top five teams in the latter metric.
Lastly, key RBNY winger Lewis Morgan is out due to health and safety protocols, and center back Aaron Long is questionable with a calf issue.
In the end, I just trust Philadelphia a good deal more. And while there's something to the Red Bulls' away form, their away schedule has also been soft and I expect they will sort of regress to the mean at some point.
So, the overall MLS home winning percentage of 52% means more than the RBNY road heroics to me. That's why I'm backing Philadelphia at +135 odds and an implied 42.6% probability to win this match outright.
Quillen's Pick: Philadelphia ML (+135)
