With less than two months remaining in the Major League Soccer regular season, it's time for teams to try and make a move.
FC Cincinnati could use a big road result Saturday against the New York Red Bulls to jump-start its suddenly stalled playoff campaign. Montreal would gain some separation with a victory when it hosts New England.
And Chicago has a chance to prove it's for real when it welcomes New York City FC to Soldier Field.
That said, here are our best bets for the weekend slate.
Our 3 MLS Best Bets
RBNY vs. FC Cincinnati
| RBNY Odds | -145 |
| Cincinnati Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-155 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 6 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Unusual home-away splits in terms of wins and losses aren't always worth backing, but they are if you can explain them.
And in the meeting of New York Red Bulls and FC Cincinnati, teams who don't seem to enjoy much home-field advantage, there is a common culprit: pressing.
Both clubs are among the MLS leaders in pressing actions per 90 minutes. That can lead to the creation of higher quality chances when playing as an away side against proactive home teams victimized by said press.
That's a reasonable explanation to why these clubs are as good on the road as at home, when expected-goals data suggest they shouldn't be. And it's a good reason to back Cincinnati here.
I already played the outfit in our weekly Global Underdogs feature. Now, I'm doubling down on an Asian Handicap wager at plus money.
Cincinnati has taken at least a point from two thirds of iots away games. The Red Bulls have dropped at least two in three quarters of their fixtures.
By The Numbers
- 4-4-4 — Away record (W-L-D) for Cincinnati this season.
- 3-5-4 — Home record (W-L-D) for NYCFC this campaign.
Quillen's Pick: FC Cincinnati +0.5 (+110)
Montreal vs. New England
| Montreal Odds | -130 |
| New England Odds | +340 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-135 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Another weekend of MLS action means another weekend backing New England's home/away splits when it comes to total goals.
The Revolution don't change for much of anyone, even when they've missed players like striker Gustavo Bou and winger Dylan Borrero for an extended stretch. And their tactical consistency home and away has led to higher-scoring away contests. There have been three or more goals scored in 11 of 13 New England away games.
Montreal's trends actually point to higher scoring games on the road as well. However, it's starting from a place of playing some of the highest-scoring anywhere in the league. So, the total has also cleared the number in nine of 13 home contests.
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The hosts are scoring and letting in more goals than xG data suggests, but goalkeeper James Pantemis' struggles and the side's depth in attack explains some of those issues.
That said, back another high-scoring clash here at -135 odds and an implied 57.4% probability. It's a wager that has cashed considerably more often for these teams in similar environments.
By The Numbers
- 69.2% — Montreal home games (nine for 13) with at least three goals scored.
- 84.6% — New England away games (11 for 13) with at least three goals scored.
Quillen's Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-135)
Chicago vs. NYCFC
| Chicago Odds | +125 |
| NYCFC Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-165 / +120) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 6 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
It's hard to understand how Chicago has turned so much spending on offensive talent into so little end product in its home games.
However, the fact remains there have been two goals or fewer in eight of the Fire's home matches, including four scoreless draws and three 1-0 encounters.
Whatever the reason, that's worth leveraging here in a clash against a New York City FC outfit that also plays some sneaky, low-scoring stuff away from Yankee Stadium or other "home" venues.
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As we've frequently discussed, NYCFC's overall metrics — both in actual goals and expected goals — are warped by the uniqueness of its main home-field environment in Yankee Stadium.
The club might have played some higher scoring away contests of late, but seven of its 12 away matches still finished with fewer than three goals.
In short, this isn't a game where the under should be at plus money. Take advantage of that ahead of this affair.
By The Numbers
- 62.5% — Totals under 2.5 goals hit in Chicago home and NYCFC away games (15 of 24) this season.
- 2.3 — Average combined xG in those 24 games.
Quillen's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+120)
