It's another pivotal Saturday in Major League Soccer, with us arriving at the three-quarter mark of the season.
Surging Inter Miami looks for another away result against the New York Red Bulls. FC Cincinnati and Columbus complete their Hell is Real derby season series. And it's do-or-die time for Chicago when Montreal comes to town.
That said, here are our three best bets for the Saturday slate.
Our Saturday MLS Best Bets
RBNY vs. Inter Miami
| RBNY Odds | -155 |
| Miami Odds | +410 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-140 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
My play for our weekly Global Underdogs feature was on Inter Miami to win this game. And as I often do, I'm doubling down on the Herons getting +0.5 goals via the Asian Handicap as my top pick.
This is partly about the Red Bulls' woeful home record, where they've won only three of 13 times. This club just isn't very comfortable when a visiting opponent sits deep, allows it possession and time to think. And Miami is extremely likely to do that in this meeting.
This is also partly about the Herons' improvement, which has been gradual throughout the season and then more sudden since acquiring 2020 MLS MVP Alejandro Pozuelo in a trade from Toronto FC.
Inter Miami has lost only once in seven appearances since Pozuelo's arrival, while also earning points in its last two away games.
Even over the longer view, this would be a wager backed by results. The away team has earned a point in 15 of 25 occasions between RBNY's home matches and Miami's away fixtures or 60% of the time. The +130 odds here imply a 43.5% probability.
By The Numbers
- 3-5-5 — RBNY's record (W-L-D) in home league games this season.
- 4-1-2 — Miami's record (W-L-D) in Pozuelo's seven appearances with the club.
Quillen's Pick: Inter Miami +0.5 (+130)
FC Cincinnati vs. Columbus
| Cincinnati Odds | +113 |
| Columbus Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-140 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
There are a few reasons to get aggressive and bet an alternative total clearing 3.5 goals in this latest Ohio derby.
The first is FC Cincinnati trends toward playing higher-scoring home games, with the total hitting four or more on seven of 13 occasions.
Even adding in the less frequent four times Columbus away totals have reached at least four goals, that's a rate of 11 of 25 and it's slightly above the implied 40% probability of a wager at +150 odds.
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Secondly, the visitor's games have gotten considerably higher scoring since Cucho Hernandez joined the club from Watford this summer. He's the hottest striker in MLS with eight goals in eight appearances. Four of those contests have seen at least four combined goals scored.
Lastly, both teams are without suspended defensive midfielders: Obinna Nwobodo for Cincinnati and Artur for Columbus.
That's a recipe for goals when you have two of the best playmakers in the league with Columbus' Lucas Zelarayan and Cincinnati's Luciano Acosta.
By The Numbers
- 53.8% — Hit rate on total goals over 3.5 in Cincinnati home games.
- 50% — Hit rate on total goals clearing 3.5 in Hernandez's eight appearances with Columbus.
Quillen's Pick: Total Over 3.5 Goals (+175)
Chicago vs. Montreal
| Chicago Odds | +130 |
| Montreal Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +255 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-125 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 8 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Montreal falls just below the threshold of +200 odds for our Global Underdogs feature. Otherwise, the Canadian side would've been an easy inclusion.
I bet this match when it opened and it's a little puzzling to me why the line hasn't moved. Montreal has an identical record away as at home, which includes two more victories than the five Chicago have in its home tilts.
The club had a couple road blowouts against good teams, but one came while playmaker Djordje Mihailovic was injured and the other while it navigated CONCACAF Champions League play early this year. And it's likely to finish second in the Eastern Conference.
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Chicago had put together a five-match unbeaten run, but that ended after it stepped up in class and lost at Philadelphia and home to New York City FC.
The Fire's home xG totals might suggest it should be a slight favorite. However, Chicago is third last in MLS in big chances created, while Montreal is a solid eighth overall. Mentality is also a question with the Fire's playoff hopes fading.
By The Numbers
- 7-4-2 — Montreal's away record (W-L-D) this season.
- 5-4-4 — Chicago's home record (W-L-D) this campaign.
Quillen's Pick: Montreal ML (+190)
