Nashville vs. Minnesota Odds
| Nashville Odds | -115 |
| Minnesota Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-140 / +100) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 9 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FS1 | fuboTV |
| Odds updated as of Sunday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Nashville SC looks try to improve its disappointing home form when it hosts surging Minnesota United on Sunday in a Western Conference playoff race clash in Major League Soccer action.
The Coyotes entered the weekend sixth in the conference, sitting two points behind fourth-place Minnesota United after a 4-3 home loss to Toronto FC last time out.
The Loons lost for the first time in eight games, suffering a 4-3 road setback against Colorado while missing three players to suspension.
These teams shared the points in a 1-1 draw in the Twin Cities on March 5 in the second match of the season for each club.
Nashville SC
Nashville overcame expectations in its first two seasons with exceptional home form that hasn't carried over to 2022 since opening the 30,000-seat GEODIS Park.
The Coyotes' 4-3 defeat against Lorenzo Insigne and Toronto FC was their third since the venue opened. That's two more than they weathered through 27 league matches at Nissan Stadium.
The primary culprit? A defense that regressed after posting exceptional 2022 numbers. Manager Gary Smith's men have conceded multiple goals five times in 11 home games. They've score in all three home defeats.
Toronto FC was the first of 39 all-time regular season visitors to Nashville to score more than twice.
By The Numbers
- +5.4 — Home xGDiff for Nashville, which is good for only ninth in the Western Conference this season.
- +1 — The Coyotes' home GDiff, which ranks 11th in the conference.
Minnesota United
The Loons have transformed from one of the more disappointing sides in MLS into one of the hottest in the last six weeks.
Emanuel Reynoso has led the charge with six goals and three assists during Minnesota's seven-match unbeaten run. And Luis Amarilla has three goals in his last two games to bring his total to eight for the season.
Even Minnesota's most recent 4-3 defeat was a bit of a moral victory, having come while Reynoso, winger Robin Lod and center back Michael Boxall served card accumulation suspensions. They're all eligible for this affair.
By The Numbers
- +1.2 — Minnesota's xGDiff during its seven-match unbeaten run.
- +7 — The Loons' GDiff during that span of matches.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Minnesota's recent form requires some context: Only two of its last eight opponents would be playoff teams entering the weekend. And the Loons have conceded 15 goals during that stretch.
However, if Amarilla can be consistently productive, that's a new dimension for a roster too reliant on Reynoso and Lod for scoring.
As for Nashville, it's actually more consistent at home in this season, though not in a good way. The Coyotes have scored at least once in all but one match, but more than twice only one time.
Recent trends point toward a higher total than oddsmakers originally accounted for, and the line has moved accordingly. However, sometimes buying into trends this time of year is tricky, because the more crowded summer schedule results in some less rational outcomes.
Factoring that in, I still like backing the attacking play here, but splitting my wagers to provide a greater chance of a payout in a lower scoring game.
On the home side, I like Nashville to score exactly two goals at +240 odds and an implied 29.4% probability. That play has a hit rate of 34.8% (8 of 23) between the Coyotes' home games and Loons' away matches.
And I'm also backing the visitors to score at least twice +190 odds and an implied 34.5% probability. That wager has hit at a 43.5% rate (10 of 23) on the same splits.
The Picks: Nashville — 2 Goals Exact (+240) | Minnesota — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+190)
