MLS Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: Best Bets for Sunday, Featuring Chicago-New England, Salt Lake-Portland, More (October 9)

The MLS Cup playoff picture will be completely filled out Sunday, when all 28 teams play their final regular season games.

However, for betting purposes, you shouldn't necessarily eye games with the highest playoff stakes.

For instance, there's some value in Chicago, where the Fire are hosting the New England Revolution in a meeting of two already-eliminated sides.

And in Houston, the Dynamo are also playing for next year against an LA Galaxy side fresh off the relief of sealing their postseason return.

But there is one high-stakes clash where there could be value and that'll take place when Real Salt Lake and the Portland Timbers meet in Utah.

Our 3 Sunday MLS Best Bets

Chicago vs. New England

The popular narrative is that the New England Revolution weren't able to survive the exodus of several key players after capturing the 2021 MLS Supporters' Shield.

That's only partly true. In addition to losing striker Adam Buksa, goalkeeper Matt Turner and wide man Tajon Buchanan to Europe, the players manager Bruce Arena had remaining were often hurt. But the Revolution have been healthier over the past two weeks and, as a result, have a playoff-caliber roster.

You can't say the same of the Fire yet, even tough teenagers Jhon Duran and Brian Gutierrez are having exciting late seasons.

Chicago has also had one of the weaker home-field advantages this season, earning only 0.27 points more per game in home matches.

And in a circumstance where pride is on the line, I trust the motivational talent of the all-time winningest MLS manager, Bruce Arena, over Ezra Hendrickson.

I'm playing New England on a draw no bet wager at +130 odds and an implied 43.5% probability. The track records might not support it, but the situation does.

Quillen's Pick: New England Revolution, draw no bet (+130)

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Houston vs. LA Galaxy

The Dynamo are fractionally above water at home and the Galaxy are below water away.

That alone isn't enough reason to back Houston. But you then have to add in what appears a very real improvement under interim manager Kenny Bundy.

The Dynamo have taken seven of 12 points since Bundy took over for Paulo Nagamura and have only lost to Supporters' Shield champions LAFC on the road.

The Galaxy's recent form also suggests a recent improvement, but it's a bit of smoke and mirrors.

The Galaxy have only lost once in their past 10 games, but have received eight penalties and their away form continues to be middling.

They've taken seven points from their past five on the road, but all but one of those opponents begins the weekend outside the playoffs. They've also posted a -1 goal differential in those five games.

Lastly, don't count on Galaxy striker Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez bringing out a pro-Galaxy crowd of Houston's many Mexican-Americans.

Houston fans did flock to see Carlos Vela and LAFC  earlier this season, but they also cheered raucously for the Dynamo, who pulled off an upset.

I'm backing them to do so again here, albeit buying insurance against the draw with a draw no bet wager at +120 odds and an implied 45.5% probability.

Quillen's Pick: Houston (draw no bet)

Salt Lake vs. Portland

You always have to consider the draw when betting on the Portland Timbers, who lead the Western Conference with 13 ties.

Add Real Salt Lake's record at home and the stakes of the occasion, and the price of +280 odds on the game finishing even is too good to ignore.

Portland can seal a playoff spot with a draw and Salt Lake needs a victory to move above the Timbers in the standings.

That means if the game is tied late, the visitors aren't likely to take a ton of chances. If they lead late, they almost certainly won't be trying to pad the total, perhaps even willing to take a posture that makes them more likely to concede one, but less likely to concede two.

Even without the context, you're backing a wager with an implied 26.3% probability that has hit 12 of 32 times (a rate of 37.5%) between Salt Lake home and Portland away games.

Quillen's Pick: Draw ML (+280)