MLS Odds, Picks & Predictions: FC Dallas vs. Nashville SC Odds & Pick (Wednesday, August 12)

FC Dallas vs. Nashville SC Odds

Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Fresh off its highly successful MLS is Back tournament, Major League Soccer restarts its regular season Wednesday when FC Dallas takes on Nashville SC in Frisco, Texas.

This will be the first match in more than five months for both clubs, who were sent home from the league’s showcase event in Orlando due to coronavirus outbreaks inside their organizations.

With little to analyze after MLS shut down its regular season less than a month into play, it is difficult to gauge where these clubs stand both physically and mentally entering Wednesday's match.

The hosts enter the contest with a 1-0-1 record, highlighted by a 2-0 victory against MLS is Back semifinalist Philadelphia to open their season. The Toros settled for a 2-2 draw against Montreal in its most recent match prior to the league going on hiatus.

On the other side, expansion club Nashville went 0-2 to kick off its inaugural campaign. However, both were competitive matches and the franchise could have easily picked up points had things gone a slightly different way. Nashville began its season with a 2-1 loss against Atlanta United before a 1-0 setback against MLS is Back champion Portland.

Regarding the underlying data and analytics, you have a small sample to try and handicap this match. FC Dallas is at 3.1 expected goals and 2.0 expected goals against for a plus-1.1 expected goals differential. On the other side, Nashville is well below its opponent in both statistical categories (1.2 xGF/0.5 xGA = +0.7 xGDiff). Those numbers put Nashville last among the 15 teams playing in the Western Conference.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

After looking at that data, I can’t take much from those numbers. With that being said, I am backing FC Dallas to get the job done at home in this match. The Toros are the more experienced side and would have likely made some noise at the league’s midsummer showcase in Florida. Nashville is still trying to find its identity and get acclimated to MLS life, so I will play FC Dallas to win and look for it to go over the number in total goals as well.

The Bets

• FC Dallas (-167)
• FC Dallas over 1.5 goals (-159)

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