It’s the final day of the MLS season on Saturday, with 14 games to be played on Decision Day.
Lionel Messi and Inter Miami aim to set a new MLS points record when they host the New England Revolution.
Montreal can clinch a playoff spot when it hosts New York City FC. And Orlando City can officially end Atlanta United’s season when the two rivals meet in Central Florida.
Here are our best bets for the MLS picks ahead of the season finale slate.
MLS Picks, Predictions
Click on the link in each pick below to go directly to my analysis on my MLS predictions and best bets.
- Inter Miami vs. New England pick: Suarez to Score First
- Montreal vs. NYCFC pick: Montreal – Draw No Bet
- Orlando vs. Atlanta pick: Under 3.5
Always shop around for the best lines when making your bets by using our live soccer odds page.
Inter Miami vs. New England Pick
- Inter Miami vs. New England odds: Miami -320, New England +600, Draw +490
After Messi played every minute of two World Cup Qualifiers over the October international window, there’s little incentive for manager Tata Martino to start the Argentine star here.
Miami has already wrapped up the Supporters’ Shield. New England are playing out the string and is without their best attacker in Carles Gil. And while the Herons could in fact set a new MLS points record with a victory, that concern is still secondary to keeping Messi healthy for MLS playoffs that begin next week.
That leaves only one obvious candidate to play if you are going to dabble in the goal-scoring market, which is Uruguayan veteran Luis Suarez. And that’s especially true early in the game.
The 37-year old has started six total matches without Messi alongside him in Martino’s XI, and he’s scored the first goal in two of them. Both of those performances came at home.
He’s facing none of the usage concerns that Messi will be, and he will be well-rested from the idle week when he gets the nod up front against a bad Revs defense.
It’s always a risk playing this kind of wager before lineups. But at +365 and an implied 21.4% probability to score first, it’s a risk worth taking in this circumstance.
Pick: Suarez to Score First (+365 via bet365)
Montreal vs. NYCFC Prediction
- Montreal vs. NYCFC odds: Montreal +195, NYCFC +120, Draw +260
New York City FC are one of only three MLS teams currently in the top seven of either conference that have only won four away matches this season.
Their xG numbers are also far more average on the road. And that’s been the case for several years, which is a factor in part of NYCFC having the most different playing conditions at home vs. away. The pitches at Yankee Stadium and Citi Field are the two smallest in MLS, crammed into venues made for baseball.
While Montreal are not as good as NYCFC, they are far better at home than on their travels. They have far more to play for, needing at least one point to ensure a postseason berth.
And they are better than their data suggest for two reasons — a season that began with grueling six-match road trip, and a nasty wave of injuries that afflicted the spring portion of their schedule.
The home side should be a slight favorite here, not a slight underdog. That’s worth backing on a draw-no-bet wager at +125 and an implied 44.4% probability.
Pick: Montreal – Draw No Bet (+125 via bet365)
My MLS Pick for Orlando vs. Atlanta
- Orlando vs. Atlanta odds: Orlando -150, Atlanta +320, Draw +340
You can sometimes exploit home/away trends in the MLS totals markets, and Orlando City’s clash with Atlanta United may represent one of those occasions.
Only 7-of-32 games have gone above 3.5 total goals between Orlando’s home matches and Atlanta’s away contests. Yet oddsmakers are giving out -135 odds — good for an implied 57.3% probability — on the under here.
There isn’t much disparity between these teams’ expected goals totals in terms of home/away splits, though they also suggest the price on the under provides some value.
Possession-oriented teams like Atlanta can sometimes be less efficient with their chances in away matches where they don’t have enough of the ball to develop a rhythm. And counterattack-oriented teams like Orlando can sometimes face similar efficiency struggles in home games where getting into transition is harder,
That’s all to say I think there’s something to the (relatively) lower totals when Orlando plays at home and Atlanta on the road.
There’s also the reality that this game could lose steam after halftime if results elsewhere dictate the final score is insignificant in terms of each team’s playoff picture. Atlanta needs loads of help elsewhere– in addition to a win — to keep their playoff hopes alive. Orlando will finish in fourth in the East regardless of Saturday’s result if NYCFC can’t win at Montreal.
Pick: Under 3.5 (-135 via bet365)
