The MLS Cup Playoffs continue this weekend, with the defending MLS Cup champions and reigning Supporters' Shield winners both capable of sweeping their first-round series.
On Saturday, 2023 Shield winners FC Cincinnati visit the eighth-seeded New York Red Bulls after pulling off a convincing 3-0 win at home in their opening playoff match.
Then Sunday, LAFC visit Vancouver looking to complete its series after they turned a 2-2 tie at halftime into a 5-2 victory in both teams' playoff opener.
Here are our MLS Playoffs predictions for the weekend, including Red Bulls vs Cincinnati and Vancouver vs LAFC.
| RBNY Odds | +100 |
| Cincinnati Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
The New York Red Bulls scored only 21 goals in 17 regular season home games, which is the second-lowest total in the Eastern Conference and fourth-worst in MLS.
Even factoring in their 5-2 rout of Charlotte FC in the Eastern Conference Wild Card game, they've found the net two or more times at home on only seven of 18 occasions. And only twice have they scored two or more at home against a team that finished above them in the East table.
Cincinnati weren't an exceptional defensive team on the road this season, but they were slightly better than average and held home teams to one or fewer goals on 10-of-17 occasions. The fact they won Match 1 at home in this series enables them to be conservative early and force the Red Bulls to find the game, something Troy Lesense's squad is uncomfortable doing.
Yes, there might be value on the visitors on the moneyline or handicap here. Books have favored the Red Bulls and downplayed FC Cincy all season, in part because of expected goal numbers that are more flattering to the Red Bulls than Cincy, but also highlight RBNY's dearth of quality attacking talent given how rarely they actually scored.
But the real value here is on the Red Bulls' team total under 1.5 at just a shade less than even money, which is a price slightly better than a Cincy double-chance play. The Red Bulls have won twice when they've scored only once at home, and they don't have any losses or draws when they've scored two or more.
Pick: New York Red Bulls under 1.5 (-110 via Barstool)
| Vancouver Odds | +162 |
| LAFC Odds | +155 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +100 / -138 |
Los Angeles Football Club and the Vancouver Whitecaps have combined for 20 goals in five games across all competitions this season, but this is a place to play a lower total at a very inflated price.
What makes it inflated? For starters, look at LAFC's home/away splits this season. The total has landed under 3.5 total goals in 13 of LAFC's 17 away games this season, against only 10-of-18 regular season and playoff games at BMO Stadium.
Then there's also the similar home/away splits between these clubs. 7-of-8 regular season and playoff meetings in Southern California between these clubs have gone over 3.5 goals since LAFC joined the league in 2018. None of their six meetings on B.C. Place's artificial turf have done the same.
Last of all, the recent xG trends suggest all the familiarity between these teams has led to fewer quality opportunities of late, even if LAFC scored on quite a few low-probability chances last weekend.
Between a Decision Day meeting and Match 1 of the playoff series, these teams have combined to create only 4.1 total non-penalty xG across 180 minutes.
Strange things happen in the MLS Cup Playoffs. But the price here of the total under 3.5 goals at -120 odds and a 54.5% probability is too good to pass up.
