Round 1 of the MLS Cup Playoffs concludes this weekend with a selection of some interesting win-or-go-home match 3 contests.
On Friday night, F.C. Dallas tries to halt their extended run of futility in the Pacific Northwest when they visit the Seattle Sounders.
Then, on Sunday evening, two of the most entertaining teams in the league meet when Columbus host Atlanta.
The playoffs are always a bit of a wildcard in terms of how form and trends play out. Even so, there are some angles we like.
Without further ado, here are my MLS Playoffs predictions, featuring Seattle vs Dallas and Columbus vs Atlanta.
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| Seattle Odds | -143 |
| Dallas Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +105 / -134 |
I haven't seen a single pundit backing Dallas to pull off the upset at Seattle, where FCD haven't won since 2011, but the meetings between these clubs suggest the visitors have more than a puncher's chance.
For starters, the non-penalty expected goals have been virtually even in the last three games these sides have played, with the difference in each playoff meeting so far owing to a penalty awarded to the home side. And in their first meeting, in which Seattle dominated chance creation, Dallas were without Jesus Ferreira, Paul Arriola, Paxton Pomykal, Marco Farfan, Ewa Tumasi and midseason acquisition Asier Illarramendi.
The Sounders were without some regulars too, but their two most important players this season — Cristian Roldan and Jordan Morris — were both present.
Secondly, while Dallas haven't won in Seattle in more than a decade, they've taken a point in three of their last six trips to the Emerald City. And this is one of the most ordinary Sounders teams at home this season, having won only eight of 18 between the MLS regular season and playoffs. That's reflective of midfielder Nicolas Lodeiro's decline, which has resulted in the Sounders having less joy against the kind of low block Dallas are likely to play.
So, I like two bets here. The first is the draw at +280 odds and an implied 26.3% probability. Not only do Dallas have a track record of playing to a draw here, but the regular season splits also suggest it's a likely outcome — with Seattle having drawn six at home in 2023 and Dallas six times on the road.
The other play I am backing is Dallas to advance at +220 odds and an implied 31.3% probability. Remember, games go to penalties after 90 minutes in this round. And if that happens, I think Dallas are favorites based on Maarten Paes, who have saved three of the eight on-frame penalty kicks he has faced in MLS league play. Seattle counterpart Stefan Frei has saved only one penalty in 23 chances in regulation play since the beginning of the 2017 season.
Picks: Draw (+280 via PointsBet), Dallas to Qualify (+220 via PointsBet)
| Columbus Odds | -163 |
| Atlanta Odds | +360 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -103 / -114 |
When you look at the attacking talent on both sides of the Columbus-Atlanta series, you can understand why the oddsmakers have installed 3.5 goals as the primary line for totals.
But it ignores a significant shift we've seen with Columbus over the second half of the season, to a side that has become much more proficient defensively at home. Part of this probably owes to the exit of Lucas Zelarayan and the entrance of Diego Rossi. While Zelarayan's technical ability is superior, Rossi is more of a two-way player despite also being an advanced attacker.
And part of it probably owes to increased comfort with Wilfried Nancy's ball-dominant system. It's Columbus' desire for the ball that drives totals higher, but that happens more often on the road. At home, the under 3.5 has still cashed on 10-of-18 occasions, including all five of Rossi's starts in Columbus.
Atlanta have played some more wide-open games of late following a busy summer transfer window. And the presence of Thiago Almada, who missed both Atlanta's regular season and Match 1 playoff journey to Columbus, will give the visitors more capability going forward than in their previous two meetings.
But, I think that sets us up for what we don't see a whole lot in MLS — both sides respecting the others' attacking capabilities so much to seek to control the ball more at the expense of turning every moment into a scoring chance.
Additionally, while the over has cashed twice in the four meetings between these sides in 2023, those games have averaged about 2.8 total xG created per 90 minutes between those teams. There have only been 4.4 total xG created in the two meetings in Columbus.
When you factor in the trend toward fewer goals of late on Columbus' side, that's enough for me to play the under here at -110, even though it feels a little uncomfortable.
