Euro 2024 continues today on Monday, June 24 with two fixtures.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Monday's Croatia vs Italy and Albania vs Spain games.
Monday Euro 2024 Match Projections
Croatia vs Italy, 3 p.m. ET
- Italy to win is the most likely outcome at 39.5%, but there is no clear favorite result here
- The projections are also in line with the total, as this game projects to go under 2.5 goals 52.5% of the time, so even the best line of -113 to the under is not any value
- Since the projections are perfectly in line with the market, I'll pass on this one.
Italy to win is the most likely outcome at 39.5%, but there is no clear favorite result here. The projections are also in line with the total, as this game projects to go under 2.5 goals 52.5% of the time, so even the best line of -113 to the under is not of any value.
Since the projections are perfectly in line with the market, I'll pass on this one.
Albania vs Spain, 3 p.m. ET
- Spain are 67.9% favorites to win
- My model is mostly in line with the market
- Spain had held Croatia and Italy to an average of 1.3 xG, but Albania's offensive rating is far worse than that of Italy and Croatia
- Spain to win 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 +175 under Correct Score Combination at FanDuel is the best value play based off these projections.
I have Spain at 67.9% to win, which is again in line with the market. Spain held Croatia and Italy to an average of 1.3 xG, but Albania's offensive rating is worse than both teams.
Based on these projections, a correct score combination is the best value play.
