Brighton vs. Crystal Palace Odds
| Brighton Odds | -137 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +245 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120/-150) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
Odds updated as of Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Things could get interesting in Premier League action Monday when surging Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Crystal Palace in a crucial showdown.
The host Seagulls have been playing their best brand of soccer as of late, joining league-leading Manchester City and fourth-place Chelsea as the lone outfits in England's top flight unbeaten in at least their last six league fixtures.
Brighton, which struggled to get results for much of its campaign before going on this much-deserved run, sits in 16th place and four points clear of the relegation zone.
In contrast, the Eagles have struggled and were shut out in their last two league contests. Most recently, Crystal Palace was handed a 3-0 setback on home soil against Burnley at Selhurst Park.
Brighton
Manager Graham Potter has to be thrilled with the resilience his side has shown during a rollercoaster of a campaign. One of the best teams in terms of advanced metrics, the Seagulls have finally started getting results that match their stellar numbers.
Victories against Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool really got things rolling for the Seagulls, triggering their ascension up the table. Neal Maupay leads Brighton's offensive attack with a team-best seven goals.
And while Brighton's offense has done just enough to help scratch out those results (its last three wins have been via 1-0 score lines), it has been its defense that has taken the spotlight during this tear.
Brighton has recorded an impressive five consecutive clean sheets, highlighted by a scoreless draw with Aston Villa last time out that saw the Villans generate a measly 0.1 xG in the stalemate.
Statistically, the host continues to be one of the league's better outfits when it comes to the advanced numbers. The Seagulls sit on 32.4 expected goals (xG) and respectable 25.5 expected goals against, resulting in +6.9 xGDiff and +0.29 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Crystal Palace
The Eagles have been a model of inconsistency this season. For every rare, decent effort they've put up, there's another where their performance was nothing to write home about.
Cases in point, Crystal Palace's last two games resulted in uninspiring shutout defeats to Leeds (2-0) and the aforementioned Burnley debacle.
The biggest reason for the Eagles' stagnant offense has been the loss of standout Wilfried Zaha. The team's leading scorer with nine goals missed both of those fixtures, and has been ruled out for this contest as well.
When comparing numbers with Brighton, Crystal Palace's overall figures come up short in all major categories. The Eagles sit on a lowly 20.6 expected goals and lackluster 34.8 expected goals against, resulting in a poor -14.2 xGDiff and -0.59 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Not to sound like a broken record, but there is no reason to overthink things when something looks so obvious on paper. You have one team going places; another flirting with the relegation zone.
Playing another match without Zaha is crushing for Crystal Palace, which has lost 18 of its last league 20 games when the star doesn't take the pitch.
That said, I'm keeping it simple and backing the Seagulls. Knowing a victory would send it two more spots up the table has to have Brighton motivated for this affair, so I will take the host to bag all three points.
I will also sprinkle a little on the total staying under the number. There have been two goals or less in the Seagulls' last seven league tilts, plus the last three games between these clubs have stayed under 2.5 goals. Needless to say, I anticipate another low-scoring affair in this latest confrontation.
Picks: Brighton ML (-137) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-150)
