Chelsea vs. Everton Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -182 |
| Everton Odds | +525 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -124) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCSN |
| Odds as of Sunday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
Teams with Champions League ambitions face off Monday, with Chelsea making the trip to Merseyside for a Premier League match with Everton.
The Blues have been second to only Manchester City in the England's top flight since manager Thomas Tuchel took over in late January. They have the league’s best defense, while waiting for chances to break through going forward against its opponents.
Everton presents Chelsea a fantastic opportunity to do just that.
Let’s dig into why the total has value in Monday's showdown.
Chelsea
The Blues haven’t been spectacular under Tuchel, but they’re sure getting the job done.
The German manager is unbeaten in 10 matches in charge, eight of which have been in league play. The most impressive results have been a pair of 1-0 victories away from Stamford Bridge. One of those efforts came on Feb. 23 in the Champions League play against La Liga leaders Atlético Madrid, while the other occurred last Thursday versus Liverpool.
The Blues’ 10 games under Tuchel have seen a combined 13 goals scored, only two of which have gone against them. The defense has been absolutely spectacular, staking claim to being the league's best under their new manager.
Going forward, the talent is obviously there for Chelsea to break through. The Blues have just 10.25 expected goals (xG) in their eight league games under Tuchel, according to Understat, as the emphasis has been put on the backline.
Everton
The Toffees enter this game in fifth place, sitting a point behind Chelsea for the next season's final UCL spot with a game in hand.
Everton’s plus-six goal difference is the lowest of any club in the top half of the table (even Arsenal!), and the xG data indicates it has been riding its luck all season.
The Toffees have scored 39 goals, but have a non-penalty expected goals total of just 32.60, according to Understat. They actually have a negative non-penalty expected goal difference at -0.19 up to this point.
After starting 2021 with just two wins in its first eight games, Everton has turned things around with three consecutive wins coming into this match. After a huge 2-0 win over Liverpool at Anfield, they have registered back-to-back 1-0 shutouts over Southampton and West Bromwich Albion.
The Toffees have been fortunate that their opposition during this three-game run haven't been very clinical. They’ve allowed a combined 3.23 xGA, including 1.02 on Thursday against the lowly Baggies.
Betting Analysis & Picks
The Action Network’s BJ Cunningham projects 2.42 xG in this game. Given Chelsea’s expensive talent going forward and the dynamic Everton duo of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison, that’s enough for me to back the total over 2.5 goals as my top pick.
The biggest reason I’m going to back the over: Since the start of Tuchel’s reign at Chelsea, Everton has 12.75 xGA, which ranks 13th in the league. The Toffees are still getting results in that span, though, with 14 points from nine games.
Everton is conceding chances while still chasing the result, a combination that is great for an over between two quality teams.
The Toffees have the quality in the midfield to keep enough possession that they can help dictate a fast tempo, thus creating a game that is extremely open in comparison to what Chelsea’s recent matches have looked like.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+100)
