Premier League Odds & Betting Picks: Sheffield United vs. Wolverhampton (Monday, Sept. 14)

Sheffield vs. Wolves Odds

Odds as of Monday at 11 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Two of the 2019-20 Premier League overachievers meet on Monday to kick off their 2020-21 campaigns. Wolves struggled to the finish in the PL, dropping from top-four contention to seventh place and out of the Europa League. Meanwhile, Sheffield United, pegged to go straight back down after promotion, finished the season in eighth. 

Both teams were stout defensively last season, as Wolves allowed the second-fewest expected goals in the league, and Sheffield was seventh. Both of these teams play a similar three-at-the-back style, which leads to their tactics neutralizing one another for large parts of the match. Both teams also finished the season in the bottom five in passes completed inside the opponent’s final third in 2019-20. Neither team likes to have the ball, neither team generates a lot of shots usually and neither team is willing to push numbers forward at the risk of opening themselves up at the back.

In the teams’ last meeting in July, there were very few chances for either side until Sheffield scored a late winner off a corner in stoppage time. The two teams combined to generate 0.8 expected goals in that match. Wolves and Sheffield United also both rank in the top eight of fewest passes allowed inside their own final third, meaning the majority of the teams’ games are spent in the middle third of the pitch. 

All of these metrics suggest that Monday’s game will not be an exciting one, but a very defensive one. While both teams return most of their starting lineups from the end of last season, one notable departure is Blades’ goalkeeper Dean Henderson. The Manchester United loanee finished the 2019-20 season sixth in post-shot xG difference. He was one of the league’s top keepers and a major reason why Sheffield United overperformed their defensive xG numbers. 

Wolves are replacing right wing back Matt Doherty, who left for Tottenham. But his absence, along with an injury to left wing back Jonny, hurts Wolves in attack more than it does in defense. 

I don’t like to back a winner in a game where I don’t expect either team to be able to score, but I do expect a slow start in this game. Since these two teams combined to score 30 total first-half goals between them last season, I’ll take my chances on a slow start and grab the first-half under. My numbers project 2.13 total goals so I will pass on the total, but at +200, a draw is worth a flier in a game. 

The Pick: Under 0.75 first half (-105); Draw (+200)

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