Bologna vs. Juventus Odds, Pick
| Bologna odds | +450 |
| Juventus odds | -162 |
| Draw odds | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-137, +112) |
| Time | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
Odds as of Monday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
League leaders Juventus look to maintain their top spot in the table as they head to the Renato Dall'Ara stadium to take on Bologna.
Juventus lead Serie A by only one point over Lazio. With Lazio taking on Atalanta on the road in their next match, all three points could see Juventus widen their gap by four points.
Bologna are sitting right in the middle of table, only five points off Napoli for the final Europa League spot. Three points against the league leaders could vault them within striking distance of a European football spot.
Bologna
Bologna is one of the most underrated teams in Serie A. Based on expected points, Bologna should be seven points higher in the table than they currently are (34 actual vs. 41.28 xPoints). Additionally, their +9.49 expected goal differential shows they are a much better team than their -4 actual goal differential suggests.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Before the break, Bologna had a decent run of form. In their last eight matches, Bologna complied a +1.54 expected goal differential and won the expected goal differential in five of those eight matches.
Playing against the league leaders will be a step on in competition. But, with wins against Atalanta, Roma, and Napoli so far this season, I think Bologna is up to the task.
Juventus
Juventus are top Serie A once again, looking for their ninth straight title. This year they have a worthy challenger in Lazio, who sit only one point behind them in the table.
To this point in the season, it seems crazy to say, but Juventus are a fraudulent team. Based on expected points, Juventus should be 14 points lower in the table than they currently are (63 actual vs. 49.04 xPoints).
Although Juventus has earned 26 of a possible 39 points on the road this season, they've only managed to accrue a +1.55 expected goal differential on the road.
Juventus struggled in the Coppa Italia final against Napoli final. Maurizio Sarri's men looked lost for most of the second half, having no identity or sense of what the plan was for the game.
Playing against an underrated squad like Bologna could cause the league leaders some problems.
Analysis
I think Juventus are significantly overrated in this game. My model has this game closer to a pick'em than Juventus being a significant favorite:
- Bologna projected odds: +196 (33.79% win probability)
- Juventus projected odds: +146 (40.64%)
- Draw projected odds: +291 (25.57%)
- Bologna projected xG: 1.29
- Juventus projected odds: 1.44
I am going to back the home underdog to hopefully get at least a draw against the league leaders.
