Morocco vs Colombia Odds
| Morocco Odds | +450 |
| Colombia Odds | -182 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+125 / -163) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+137 / -188) |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
Morocco and Colombia will conclude their Group H play in the 2023 Women's World Cup against each other early Thursday morning.
Colombia, aka The Coffee Growers, are the group leaders, hoisting two wins, including their 2-1 upset victory over Germany. A win or draw on Thursday would secure a first-place finish in Group H, but even a loss could see the South American country advance to their second-ever knockout round appearance, depending on the result of Germany vs South Korea.
The Atlas Lionesses' road to the round of 16 is not as straightforward. They need to win but are also dependent on the other match. South Korea must defeat Germany, or Morocco need to score enough goals on Thursday to win a tiebreaker over Germany or Colombia.
Here is a breakdown of the Morocco vs Colombia odds, and my pick for the 2023 Women's World Cup match.
Morocco Seem to Have Settled In
Morocco's first-ever World Cup got off to a tough start when Germany dismantled them 6-0. However, they settled in during their second match, defeating South Korea 1-0 to earn a historic first-ever victory on the world stage for the country.
The Lionesses locked in defensively, something that was nowhere to be found in their opening match. They didn't allow South Korea a single shot on target, despite conceding 62% possession and allowing over half of Korea's passes to be in their defensive half.
The park-the-bus strategy will not be one they will be able to depend upon on Thursday, however, as they not only need the win against Colombia, but they need to win big. And unfortunately, it is unknown if the African side can produce multiple quality scoring chances throughout the match. They have had the sixth-fewest shots per 90 in the tournament thus far, averaging eight a game, and Morocco have produced a total of 1.6 xG in their two matches.
Morocco's style of play that led to qualifying for a first-ever World Cup is what we will need to see on Thursday. They punched their ticket to Australia and New Zealand due to finishing second in the Women's African Cup of Nations. During their strong run in WAFCON, they averaged 60.2% possession and had the best passing accuracy in the tournament, completing 79.5% of their passes, indicating that they controlled the flow of a game.
Manager Reynald Pedros will need to get that confidence out of his team on Thursday if they are to have any chance at the uphill battle that is advancing to the knockout phase.
Colombia Are Suddenly Clinical in Front of Goal
The South American side, known for their flare and tika-taka style of play, have put themselves on the map early on in this competition. It is not only that they beat the two-time women's world champions, Germany, but how they did it.
Despite only controlling 32% of possession against the Germans, Colombia controlled a large portion of this match, and their skill and pace were on full display. Colombia manager Angelo Marsiglia lined his side up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, allowing them to use their pace on the wing to create chances.
And while Colombia have always been able to use their creativity and skill to build up to the final third of the pitch, the Coffee Growers would often become anxious in front of goal and often squander their chances, despite their eye-pleasing play.
However, that anxiety has suddenly faded. Colombia are ninth in the tournament for goals per 90 minutes, averaging two goals per match, and they have a +3 goal differential. It certainly helps when you have an 18-year-old superstar in Linda Caicedo scoring goals like this:
THIS WAS WILD! The Best Goal of the Day goes to Linda Caicedo for putting on this show! 🙌 🔥 pic.twitter.com/xIIlLeJqZV
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) July 30, 2023
Colombia's defense has been equally impressive this tournament. They have yet to allow a goal from open play and have given up the second-fewest shots on target with four. If their defense can continue to keep the opposing team out of the goal, they will be moving on to the round of 16 regardless of whether their nerves in front of goal return.
Morocco vs Colombia Pick
Morocco showed a lot of resilience to overcome their opening loss against Germany and keep their World Cup hopes alive with a long shot at advancing to the knockout phase.
However, they will likely be outmatched in this clash against Colombia. Even if Morocco can control the game similar to how they did during their WAFCON run, the South American side has shown us that regardless of whether they dominate possession or not, they can produce goals — two goals at that. And even though Colombia are likely to advance, it is not a foregone conclusion just yet, so they will not take their foot off the gas in order to complete a perfect 3-for-3 group stage.
Rather than taking Colombia on the spread or moneyline in this spot, I am going to back their team total at 1.5 and expect them to continue to hit their two-goal average against a Morocco team that will be stretched defensively due to their dire circumstances.
The Pick: Colombia over 1.5 (-111 via FanDuel)
