Napoli vs Fiorentina Odds
| Napoli Odds | +145 |
| Fiorentina Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +110 / -143 |
Napoli and Fiorentina meet in Saudi Arabia for the Italian Supercoppa semifinals.
Napoli have gone through a very tough season after winning the Serie A title and are sitting in eighth place, but are only three points off the top of the top four. Napoli picked up a win against Salernitana over the weekend, but have been going through a pretty bad run lately, so getting to the Supercoppa final would be a step in the right direction.
Fiorentina are sitting inside the top four in the Serie A table, but have drastically overperformed to get there. Fiorentina did beat Napoli 3-1 earlier this season, which should provide confidence to get to the final.
Napoli
Yes, Victor Osimhen is away at the Africa Cup of Nations representing Nigeria, but the market is downgrading Napoli way too much in his absence. He’s already missed an extended period of time this season due to injury and is only a 0.61 xG per 90 minute striker in Serie A.
Even with Osimhen playing 11 90s this season, Napoli is second in Serie A in npxG per 90 minutes at 1.45. Walter Mazzarri has kept the same 4-3-3 tactics that Napoli is used to playing and even though they haven’t gotten the results, the performances have been good. Napoli has been on a really bad finishing run in front of net lately and has only scored one goal from open play in its past five matches, despite creating 6.4 non-penalty expected goals.
The defensive numbers are nowhere near where they were last season, but they are still good as Napolis is allowing only 1.00 npxG per 90 minutes. It's also allowing the fewest shots and third-fewest box entries. What makes Napoli so good though is its pressing. It has the best PPDA and has forced the most high turnovers of any team in Serie A and will be able to cause a lot of problems with Fiorentina’s build up.
Fiorentina
Fiorentina is one of the most possession dominant teams in Serie A, controlling an average of 58% of possession. That sounds impressive, but Fiorentina hasn't really been able to do much with it from an underlying numbers standpoint.
Fiorentina is second in Serie A in final-third entries and third in xThreat, but is just ninth in non-penalty expected goals. The reason for that is it isn’t getting into the opponents box at a high rate and ranks 14th in final third to box entry conversion rate.
The problem with Fiorentina is it doesn't have a great striker up top to create a lot of chances once it gets into the final third. Nicolas Gonzalez has been the best attacker this season and leads the team with a 0.47 xG + xA per 90 minute scoring rate. The problem is he is out injured until the end of January and the options they have to replace his production have done very little.
Their main men up top have been M'bala Nzola or Lucas Beltran, but both are below a 0.30 xG per 90 minute scoring rate. As a result, this attack is going to be completely reliant on Giacomo Bonaventura to score from the midfield position, despite drastically overperforming his underlying numbers this season.
Napoli vs Fiorentina
Prediction
Which side will hold more possession? These are the top two teams in Serie A in both average possession and field tilt, so it is a little concerning for Fiorentina if it has to play without the ball for a majority of the match. Napoli is battle tested through the Champions League in playing without the ball, so that is not an issue.
The Fiorentina offense has outperformed its underlying numbers offensively by about four goals, so not having its best attack available with two strikers who have put up below average production numbers tells me this team is screaming for regression.
I have Napoli projected as a -211 favorite on a neutral field, so I love the value on them at -125 to advance to the Supercoppa Final.
Pick: Napoli to Advance (-125 via Bet365)
