Napoli vs Inter Milan Odds
| Napoli Odds | +400 |
| Inter Milan Odds | -154 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Inter Milan and Napoli will face off in Riyadh on Monday for the Italian Supercoppa trophy. Both clubs had routine victories by scoreline in the semifinals as Napoli beat Fiorentina 3-0 and Inter crushed Lazio by the same score on Friday. Napoli do have an extra day of rest, but the reigning Serie A champions are still without star striker Victor Osimhen due to the Africa Cup of Nations.
Since firing Rudi Garcia, Napoli's performances have fallen off as a whole, and the win against Fiorentina was much more competitive than the final score would lead you to believe. Fiorentina doubled up Napoli on shots, missed a first half penalty, had a goal VAR'd off in a very tight decision and the game finished close to even in expected goals.
Compare this performance to Inter's total domination of Lazio and you start to see why Inter are such a solid favorite on Monday. Inter held 61% of the ball, outshot Lazio 23-5 and Yann Sommer didn't have to make a save in the entire match. The market has taken notice of Napoli's declining performance under their new manager as well. It's all culminated in Inter being 0.75 goals better than Napoli on a neutral, when Napoli spent most of last season power rated even or even marginally better than Inter.
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Napoli
Napoli have run quite poorly from a finishing variance perspective all season long and it led to the firing of Garcia on Nov. 14. They had a +0.76 non-penalty expected goal difference per 90 in all league matches prior to firing him and a +0.60 actual goal difference per match. The main issue is that Napoli conceded a ton of early goals despite not actually playing all that bad.
Because of the poor results, Napoli sacked Garcia and appointed former manager Walter Mazzarri. Not only have Napoli continued to run bad, but their underlying performances have taken quite a hit. Napoli have a +0.39 non-penalty xG difference per 90 and they have a negative goal differential in the league under Mazzarri.
The new manager has not led to a bump in performance and results and the change in play style has hurt their team strength. You can expect Giovanni Simeone to start up top with Osimhen on international duty and the striker has produced solid underlying numbers in limited league minutes this year. He's played just 4.5 90s but has put up 0.45 xG per match. The attack is considerably worse without Osimhen's shot volume though, especially because right winger Matteo Politano isn't offering high shot volume to overcome Osimhen's absence.
The Napoli defense has also taken a step back this year. While the defensive numbers league wide have all taken a step forward because of declining shot quality, Napoli's defense went from allowing 0.76 non-pen xG per 90 last year to 0.95 this season.
The primary regression for Napoli and bad luck has come in attack. For all of its issues at times, they're still producing the most shots per match in Italy and the most shots on goal. They're second only to Inter in xG per 90. The only problem has been the actual finishing. Napoli have an above-average mean shot distance and yet have the second-lowest goals per shot rate in the Italian top flight.
Inter Milan
Juventus have a one point lead over Inter in the Serie A table because of one extra game played, but the underlying metrics and betting markets are quite clear on who the best team in Italy is this season. Simone Inzaghi's Inter could have slipped a bit after a run to the Champions League final, but they've actually improved. The defense is improved in xG per shot and total shots allowed per match. Marcus Thuram is putting up elite striker numbers as a partner to Lautaro Martinez.
Inter are getting 0.13 goals per shot and Napoli is all the way down at 0.07. This prolonged finishing slump means that Napoli is getting just 1.22 goals per match in Serie A despite producing 1.56 xG per match.
When these two sides met in the league, it ended up one sided for Inter. They won 3-0 and dominated xG, but the total shots and box entries were quite even overall. Inter created two mega chances worth 1.7 xG and otherwise Napoli were highly competitive. Napoli even had more penalty box touches overall.
Napoli vs Inter Milan
Prediction
Inter closed a -162 favorite against Lazio on Friday in the same arena. With one fewer day rest now, it's hard to justify Napoli and Lazio being basically even in team strength to warrant this price. Even without Osimhen, Napoli have considerably better underlying xG data in Italy this year.
Given the current form of the two clubs, all signs would point to Inter lifting the trophy on Monday. But recent form can overrate teams in the betting market, and that's the case here with Inter. Napoli are near the floor and just closed a pick'em on a neutral with Fiorentina.
