Napoli vs Union Berlin Odds
| Napoli Odds | -250 |
| Union Berlin Odds | +700 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Napoli look to keep pace with Real Madrid at the top of the group when they host Union Berlin after beating them 1-0 in Germany.
They are in interesting form at the moment. Basically, every time they have to play high quality competition in both Serie A and the Champions League, they've been pretty poor. They've played AC Milan, Lazio and Fiorentina in Serie A along with Real Madrid in the Champions League, and only have come away with one point in those four matches. They also could be without their world class striker Victor Osimhen for this game.
Union Berlin are in the worst form of anyone in Europe, losing an unprecedented 13 straight matches in all competitions. They need to stop the bleeding in a hurry, especially in the Champions League where they are without a point in their first three matches. They are a naturally passive defensive team, so having to play more aggressive and needing points is a bad recipe.
Here is my Napoli vs Union Berlin prediction.
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Napoli
Napoli's underlying metrics so far this season under Rudi Garcia are very similar to what they were under Luciano Spalletti.
| Season | npxGF per 90 minutes | npxGA per 90 minutes | npxGD per 90 minutes |
| 2023-24 | 1.59 | 0.82 | +0.77 |
| 2022-23 | 1.50 | 0.80 | +0.70 |
data from fbref.com
Rudi Garcia is laregly playing the same tactics as last season, lining the team up in a 4-3-3 and building out of the back. What Garcia implemented in his time at Lyon was a fluid attacking system with the forwards and winger constantly interchanging their positioning to help them break down low block. He wants his team to use a lot of combination passing in the center of the pitch to beat an opponents press and then have the wingers provide width to get them into 1 v 1 opportunities. All of this fit perfectly with what Spalletti had already implemented at Napoli.
While the results have been largely unimpressive and Napoli haven't faced a difficult schedule (haven't played Juventus, Roma or Inter), a lot of the process numbers both offensively and defensively are incredibly encouraging.
In their last match against Union Berlin, they really struggled to break down their low block. They were without Victor Osimhen and it showed. Raspadori is not the type of target man that can effectively breakdown effective low blocks like Union Berlin's, as Napoli only attempted six shots and created 0.2 xG, despite holding 59% possession.
The question is, what is going to change in the second leg? It looks like Victor Osimhen may be back for this match, which would be a big help, but if he doesn't play I am not sure how Napoli are suddenly going to start creating a bunch of chances against a passive low block.
Union Berlin
Union Berlin ran ridiculously well last season, over-performing their expected metrics by a wide margin. But, dreaded regression always hits in one form of another. In this case, in comes in the form of 13 straight losses across all competitions.
What has gone terribly wrong for Union Berlin is their offensive tactics. They are a 3-5-2 low block team that is reliant on counterattacking opportunities and set pieces to score their goals. When they suddenly aren't able to finish off their chances from those two methods at a ridiculous rate, the goals start to dry up and they have to rely on a defense that allows a ton of shots on their goal.
So far in the Bundesliga, the defensive numbers are just as good as they were last season. Union Berlin are only allowing 1.18 npxG per 90 minutes in the highest scoring league among Europe's top five leagues. They are incredibly effective in their low block, only allowing a 21.7% final third to box entry conversion rate, which is the best mark in Germany. In the first match against Napoli, they allowed 33 final third entries, but Napoli only got into their box eight times.
The problem for Union Berlin is they haven't been effective in their transition opportunities, ranking 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate. They also haven't been as efficient as years past on set pieces, ranking 12th in xG per set piece. They only created 0.4 xG off of 11 shots in the first match against Napoli and I am not sure much is going change in the reverse fixture.
Napoli vs Union Berlin
Prediction
Nothing happened in the first match between these two teams with only a total of 0.60 xG created. Even with Osimhen back in the lineup for Napoli, Union Berlin's extreme low block is not something they see regularly in Serie A, which was very evident in the first leg.
They are at their best when teams try to press them and they can create space for their attackers, but unless they create chances from out wide for their wingers. The space is not going to be afforded in the box and Union Berlin are going to dare Napoli to beat them with crosses, which is something they have not been successful in doing this season.
Union Berlin have not scored in their last five matches in all competitions, but they also haven't created over 1 xG in any of those matches. Napoli are going to counter-press them when they lose the ball, so they are going to have to be effective in their transition opportunities, which is not something they've been good at this season.
I only have 1.96 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under.
