Nashville vs. Sporting KC Odds
| Nashville Odds | -145 |
| Sporting KC Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 6 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Fox Sports 1 | fuboTV |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Nashville SC will try again to win as the strong favorite when it welcomes struggling Kansas City to GEODIS Park for the first time in Sunday’s Major League Soccer showdown.
This will be Nashville's sixth match at the new 30,000-seat venue. And although it extended its MLS home unbeaten run to 23 games, the club will feel some frustration after settling for a 0-0 draw against San Jose.
Sporting Kansas City's woes continued when it leveled after going down a man, but fell suffered a 2-1 loss to New England on Ema Boateng's late winner.
Also, the visitors only have two points from nine away games. And Nashville won the last game between these sides in a 2-1 win on April 9 in Kansas City.
Nashville SC
The Coyotes gained steam early in the MLS Cup futures market as a popular dark horse. If they're going to follow through on that promise, they need to be more decisive at home.
That said, their home slate so far has been difficult. Three of their opponents (Philadelphia, Montreal and Real Salt Lake) currently sit top three in their respective conferences. Atlanta United has the top payroll in MLS, plus San Jose has only lost twice in eight matches since switching coaches.
Lineup notes
- Defender Walker Zimmerman is questionable (foot) after his return from international duty.
- Goalkeeper Joe Willis returned and kept a clean sheet against San Jose after he was benched in a 3-1 win at Colorado.
Key Statistics
- +0.75 — Nashville's expected goals difference per 90 minutes in its five home matches, which is the fourth-best mark in the Western Conference.
- 2-0-2 — Nashville's record (W-L-D) in matches following a draw during the 2022 regular season.
Sporting Kansas City
Manager Peter Vermes has expressed frustration and exasperation over the injuries that have plagued Sporting KC this season.
However, the signs of trouble were there late in 2021 when striker Alan Pulido — who had season-ending knee surgery in February — began to struggle with injury.
Since Oct. 17, Sporting KC has led opponents in xG created only twice in 22 league matches.
Lineup notes
- Midfielder Uri Rossell is serving a one-match, red-card suspension.
- Midfielder/forward Daniel Salloi is back after missing last weekend's game on international duty with Hungary.
Key Statistics
- -14 — Sporting Kansas City's away goal-differential, which is the second-worst mark in the entire league.
- 4 — The number of goals scored by Sporting KC players not named by Johnny Russell or Daniel Salloi this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
It's rare to find value in a MLS match with a favorite at less than even money. However, we have one here.
The number would be steeper if the market weren't pricing in the Coyotes' propensity to settle for one point over three at times. Yet, in San Jose, Nashville drew a struggling team trending upward. In Kansas City, it faces a dispirited one spiraling downward.
Salloi and Russell (nine combined goals) are one of the most talented wide tandems in the league. That's a good reason to stay away from a -1.5 goal spread via the Asian Handicap on the hosts, but not the moneyline.
It's not sexy, but at -145 odds and an implied 59.6% probability, you're backing one of the best home sides against one of the worst away teams. And the average home team beats the average away team nearly 50% of the time in league play.
The Pick: Nashville ML (-145)
