Netherlands – England Odds, Netherlands – England Pick
| Netherlands Odds | +205 |
| England Odds | +164 |
| Draw | +190 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +162 / -200 |
Netherlands and England meet for a heavyweight clash in the Euro 2024 semifinals.
Netherlands outlasted Turkey to get here, but they were not impressive in doing so. The Oranje's three wins in this tournament came against three below average teams, so with England being a step up in class, they are likely going to struggle.
It wasn't pretty against both Slovakia and Switzerland, but England are in the semifinals. Gareth Southgate's uber-conservative tactics have gotten England this far and they just may take them all the way to the final in back to back Euros.
Here is how I'm betting the Netherlands – England Euro 2024 semifinal.
Netherlands
The Netherlands have made it to the semifinals, but it's not because of Ronald Koeman. His tactics in the first half of matches have been downright terrible and it's caused him to completely abandon the plan he had to begin with time and time again. Let's take the Turkey match for example. Netherlands were playing safe pass after safe pass and every risky pass they tried got blocked or stolen. They couldn't find a way through Turkey's defensive block, which had been one of the worst in the tournament and only created 0.39 xG. In fact, in the first half of matches during the Euros, Netherlands have created under 0.6 xG in every match outside of their first one against Poland.
So, Koeman decides to abandon his plan to build up out of the back and play a bunch of short passes through the middle and brings on big Wout Weghorst to send long balls up to. In the end, Netherlands scored off a set piece and an own goal, but they ended up losing the expected goals battle to Turkey 1.3 to 1.0.
The best team that Netherlands have faced throughout this tournament has been France, who were without Mbappe, and they were incredibly poor in that match, creating only 0.6 xG and giving France numerous high quality opportunities in the box. The problem with Netherlands is they consistently get caught in between being a pressing and passive team, which good in possession teams like Austria and France have punished. If England decide to be a little more aggressive they can do the same.
England
To say England haven't been impressive offensively during this tournament would be an understatement. They have gone to extra time in two straight matches against Slovakia and Switzerland, but not counting extra time they have created 3.8 expected goals in their five matches, which is not what you would expect from a team that has the wealth of attacking talent that they do.
It comes down to Southgate's in-possession tactics, which aren't horrible, but they are just way too conservative. England are always looking to make the safe pass, which typically is a ball out on the right hand side to Bukayo Saka to allow him to create a chance. The problem is he's getting doubled every time he touches the ball, which happened to him all year at Arsenal as well. Because of this, the ball will typically go backwards and England will start over, but far too often too many guys are dropping deep in build up.
Yep, that's the ideal structure you want in possession pic.twitter.com/QkkY4nGnHP
— Marco Lai (@MarcoLai_23) July 6, 2024
With all of that being said, England are an incredibly difficult team to break down. Switzerland got one good chance and took advantage of it, but so far this tournament England have only allowed 3.59 xG in their five matches in regular time. They are incredibly good at defending in transition and defending set pieces, which are the main two methods by which the Netherlands create their chances.
Netherlands vs England
Prediction
I am really close to the market on pretty much everything for this match, so I am going to pass on all of the main markets and play some player props.
Tijjani Reijnders has been playing the box crashing role for the Netherlands when they are in possession with Shouten as the holding more defensive midfielder, which means Reijnders has gotten more freedom to go forward. When you are in possession of the ball against England, they are going to play a very passive structure when they are in their own final third and will typically try and force you into a lot of long range shots.
So far in this tournament, 44% of England’s shots they have conceded have been from outside the box and their average shot distance allowed is 19.7 yards. So, if England go ahead or even if this match stays in an even game state for a long time, Reijnders should get an opportunity to get some shots off. He’s taken 10 shots already this tournament and in his last 11 appearances for the Netherlands he has gotten a shot in eight of those matches.
Declan Rice has been England’s most important player during this tournament. His defensive work rate and ball stopping ability has kept England out of trouble on numerous occasions. He leads England with 15 tackles in five matches and given the way this match is set up, the Dutch are likely going to play in transition for a majority of it, so Rice is going to have ample opportunities to get tackles in. Thus, I like the price on his over of 2.5 at +110.
