Netherlands vs Austria Odds, Netherlands – Austria Picks
| Netherlands Odds | +115 |
| Austria Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
Netherlands and Austria meet for a massive game in Group D at the Olympiastadion in Berlin.
The Netherlands were able to secure a scoreless draw with France to give them a chance on the final day to win the group. However, they will have to do so over a really difficult Austrian side that can take advantage of a lot of their weaknesses.
Austria got a much needed win over Poland in their last match to put them all but through to the knockout stage. It's all about positioning in the group now. If they win, they can give themselves a pretty good shot at finishing second or potentially even winning the group to set them up with favorable matchup in the knockout stage.
Let’s take a look at my preview for Netherlands vs Austria. And for more, check out our full Tuesday Euro 2024 match projections.
Netherlands Picks
The Netherlands ended up with 0.52 xG against France and four total penalty box shots. The last team they faced that has a similar out of possession structure to that of Austria was Germany in a friendly. In that friendly they were much more willing to play very direct passes, especially out wide. They were pretty successful with it.
The problem is, playing more direct in a match like this where they are the favorites plays right into Austria’s hands. Netherlands under Koeman are a possession-dominant build out of the back team. If they get into a back and forth transition type match with Austria they are going to lose.
However, they aren’t really that great of a build up team either. The reason they lost 4-0 to France in qualifying is because France pressed them and caused all sorts of problems. They don’t have two of their best midfielders available, so either they are going to try and play through Austria’s press with short passes and most likely run into issues or be forced into a lot of long balls up the pitch.
Austria are very capable of defending that, allowing the fourth-lowest long ball completion rate so far in this tournament. In addition to that, the Netherlands consistently drop six to seven guys deep in build to try and create numerical advantage, but they aren’t good enough against good pressing teams, so if you are forced into long balls, Austria already have a numerical advantage to win second balls.
Austria Picks
Austria were incredibly impressive in their match against France with their ability to press successfully and force France into a lot of long balls up the pitch. What Austria really have thrived with under Rangnick is their pressing triggers. They know exactly when to press and their structure is set up to not leave open spaces, unless teams want to switch the play across the field, which is not something the Dutch typically do.
Ralph Rangnick's style of play is perfect for a match like this against a team that doesn't want to get into a back and forth type of match. Austria are one of the best sides in this tournament out of possession as they utilize their press to create high turnovers and easy transition opportunities. When they do win the ball, they like to get the ball into wide areas and send in crosses, which is an area where they can attack the Dutch.
France were incredibly effective at creating overloads in wide areas against the Netherlands to create chances from out wide. The Netherlands have allowed the fifth-most crosses into their penalty area so far this tournament and Poland, who are a very similar team to Austria from an offensive standpoint, had eight accurate crosses against the Netherlands.
Netherlands vs Austria
Prediction
Austria are through to the knockout stage barring something drastic, so they have absolutely nothing to lose in this match. That means they can be aggressive as they want out of possession and force the Netherlands into a lot uncomfortable situations, which is most likely going to lead to a lot of mistakes for the Dutch.
Even though the Dutch have one of the most talented center back pairing in this entire tournament, their midfield is weak and their defending in wide areas hasn't been up to par. That is exactly where Austria like to attack, so this match sets up perfect for a Ralph Rangnick masterclass.
Since Austria are likely going to be aggressive and going for the win, I like the value on them on the moneyline at +280.
