Netherlands vs France Odds
| Netherlands Odds | +210 |
| France Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -112 / -112 |
Netherlands look to get revenge for a 4-0 beat down when they host France for a European Qualifying match.
The Dutch have rebounded from a bad start to their qualifying campaign, winning their last three matches against Greece, Ireland and Gibraltar. Netherlands are under a new manager but a familiar face, as Ronald Koeman is now at the helm after managing the Dutch National Team from 2018-2020. This match is very important because Greece are currently tied with Netherlands, but they do have a game in hand. A loss to France would see them drop into third place in the table if Greece get a result against Ireland.
France have been perfect in European Qualifying so far with five wins in five matches, outscoring their opponents a combined 11 to 0. France have perhaps the most talent of any country in the entire world, so naturally they tend to get overvalued in the betting market because they also have the best player in the world in Kylian Mbappe. With only three matches left in qualifying, France could have their spot in Euro 2024 all wrapped with three points against the Dutch.
Netherlands
The first match against France was a complete disaster for the Dutch, but it's important to always go back and look how all of the goals were scored and if they are types of things that can be fixed. The first goal came off of a high turnover, the second a set piece, the third came off a miscommunication between the center backs and the fourth came on a low probability shot from Kylian Mbappe. It's also important to note that shots were about even.
It was also a bad situation for the Dutch, who had a flu bug going around their camp that caused a lot of key players to miss the match. They also were forced to play an inexperienced Lutsharel Geertruida (Feyenoord) as the center back pairing with Virgil Van Dijk.
Koeman usually has his teams set up in a 4-3-3, but for the last two matches he has switched them back to what they played at the World Cup, a 3-4-3. Koeman has put an emphasis throughout his time as a manager at utilizing the wide areas of the pitch, which is probably where they're going to have to create their chances from given how solid France are through the middle.
The back line of their 3-4-3 with Van Dijk, van de Ven and Ake is going to look a lot better than the last time the played France. Memphis Depay is going to miss this match, but Donyell Malen has been in good form for Dortmund, scoring three goals in his last seven apperances.
France
France are going to set up and play their usual way that we've seen under Didier Deschamps for a long time now. They consistently play in a mid defensive block, clogging up the middle of the pitch and looking to win the ball off the opponents to make quick offensive transitions. When you have the best attacking player in the world it works, but you also are conceding a lot of possession. We saw that in the World Cup when they played England and Argentina. They only were able to hold 43% and 46% possession, respectively. Even in the last meeting with the Netherlands game state played a big part, but France only had 39% possession.
Now, that’s not to say France don't want to play a possession-based style, because that is exactly what they like to do when playing against smaller sides. Typically they like to build out from the back with Tchouameni dropping deep to begin the build up play and then everyone on the pitch has the freedom move where they please. It ends up being a bit of a slower build up with players making half runs in between the lines to eventually unlock the defense with to create a chance.
What France will always try to do to opponents is create an overload on Mbappe's side of the field. with Theo Hernendez making overlapping runs and Antoine Griezmann moving over to that side of the pitch to create space.
While all of this sounds great and has led France all the way to a World Cup final and five straight wins in qualifying, let's not sit here and act like they haven't been really fortunate along the way.
Netherlands vs France
Pick & Prediction
Things are much different this time around from the 4-0 beatdown in France, with the Netherlands having a much stronger squad in this meeting.
There will be a couple of keys for the Dutch in this encounter if they want to come away with a result. They have to first limit mistakes because France are one of the best teams in the world at capitalizing on their opponents' mistakes with the firepower they have going forward in transition. The Dutch also have to control the tempo of the match.
France want the match to be played fast and primarily in transition, but for the Netherlands to have their best success they need to keep the pace of this match as slow as possible, while building out of the back.
The market is way too high on France in this spot on the road. I have the Netherlands projected as home favorites, so I love the value on them draw no bet at +115.
Pick: Netherlands – Draw No Bet (+115 via bet365)
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