Netherlands vs. Qatar Odds
| Netherlands Odds | -450 |
| Qatar Odds | +1200 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175 / +137) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+120 / -163) |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
On the final day of matches in Group A, Qatar host the Netherlands with the Dutch side looking to secure a spot in the World Cup knockout rounds.
The European side advances from the group with a victory, but the goal is to claim the top spot to earn an easier game in the round of 16.
Meanwhile, the home nation was the first to be eliminated from the competition after falling to a pair of defeats.
The final group fixtures usually have more goals due to teams pushing for results. However, I’m not expecting that in this one.
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Netherlands Seeking to Put Away Group
It has not come easy for the Dutch in this tournament, but they must like their chances of making it to the next round.
Manager Louis van Gaal beat Senegal in the opener and drew with Ecuador to sit with four points coming into this game.
In those matches, Holland held a -1.8 xGDiff and only averaged 0.385 xG per 90 minutes, according to fotmob.com.
One player that could help a sputtering attack is Memphis Depay, who has come off the bench in the first two games. If his fitness levels have improved enough to be in the starting lineup, he could lead the Dutch into the knockout rounds.
Qatar Left Looking For Moral Victory
Pride is all that is left for Qatar in this one, who will be looking to avoid becoming the first home nation to lose all three games at a World Cup.
Even in the last defeat, there were some promising signs for manager Félix Sánchez’s team, who won the xG battle 0.95-0.76. Unfortunately, the only thing that matters is the final scoreline, which was a 3-1 loss to Senegal.
The attack has been the main issue so far, with Qatar only averaging 0.64 xG and just one big scoring chance per game.
This could be a huge issue coming up against a very stout Dutch defense, but I do believe we will get a spirited showing from the host nation.
Netherlands vs. Qatar Pick
The books are expecting similar results for Qatar, listing the Netherlands as the heavy -450 favorite on the moneyline. I’m not rushing to the window to back either side in this game, but I do see value in the total.
With that said, my best bet is for this match to fall under three goals at +107.
I mentioned the great defense that Holland have to work with, which has been the key to their performances in recent competitions.
At the European Championships last year, the Dutch only allowed 2.9 xG in four matches, and they followed that by surrendering 6.07 xG in six UEFA Nations League games.
The primary defensive trio of Manchester City’s Nathan Aké, Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk and Bayern Munich’s Matthis de Ligt should be available for this match, and I have a hard time seeing Qatar being able to score on them in this one.
Meanwhile, I do think that the hosts will put up a spirited fight defensively, looking to at least pick up a point before exiting the tournament.
The Pick: Under 3 (+107)
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