Netherlands vs Turkey Odds, Netherlands – Turkey Picks
| Netherlands Odds | -175 |
| Turkey Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138/ +110 |
Let's dive into the Netherlands vs Turkey odds and make a pick and prediction in our Euro 2024 betting preview for Saturday, July 6.
Netherlands and Turkey meet in Berlin with a spot in the semifinals on the line.
Netherlands dominated Romania 3-0 to get to the quarterfinals and have a pretty good looking path to get to the finals. Even though they won 3-0, they really haven't looked that impressive throughout the Euros as Ronald Koeman once again has proven himself to be an inept tactical manager. They better bring their A+ game to this match because Turkey is no pushover.
Turkey survived an onslaught in the final stages against Austria to get to the quarterfinals for the first time since 2008. They have been one of the most exciting teams to watch at the Euros being a squad littered with young talent all over the pitch. Vincenzo Montella has done a masterful job since taking over and will have them set up really well here against the Netherlands.
Netherlands Picks
The Dutch had real off-ball issues against Austria that Montella without a doubt will take advantage of. Austria kept getting them into a central overload with the Dutch players seemingly either not knowing the shape or not know who to man mark. Their press is half-hearted at best and their inability to close down the ball allowed Austria to pick out easy passes and create chances they should've never had in the first place.
One thing about Koeman systems that is really painful to watch is that he always goes for a lot of really safe passes. They did a terrible job building through Austria’s press and eventually what happened over and over was the ball went back to the goalkeeper who would send it long up to Depay.
The Netherlands may have ended up winning the xG battle in that match, but it was largely just because of individual quality — which is the reason they are here in the first place. Koeman has had them set up terribly time and time again. Their individual quality may shine out here against Turkey who has now conceded the 7.6 expected goals in four matches, but it certainly won’t be because of Koeman.
Turkey Picks
As Turkey has shown during this tournament, playing from a positive or negative game state is going to lead to a boat load of chances. There have been goals inside the first 30 minutes of each of their four matches, which has lead to those matches averaging 3.45 expected goals.
Turkey went with a very interesting approach against Austria that worked really well in the first half. They don’t really have a true striker, so they played Arda Guler as a roaming forward to play whatever role was best for them and it helped them play through Ralf Rangnick’s press. Because they had so many press resistant passers and ball carriers on the pitch, it made it easy to break the first couple lines of pressure to create a transition opportunity.
They can do the same against the Netherlands here who hasn’t been that great when they’ve had to press. When they played Austria, they only forced three high turnovers. When they played France, they only had a PPDA of 14.9.
Turkey is going to come with the same tactical plan to try and play through the Dutch press. They may be successful, or they may give the Dutch some easy transition opportunities.
Netherlands vs Turkey
Prediction
Individual quality may see the Dutch through here to the next round, but there are some real tactical issues, especially off the ball that need to be fixed in a short amount of time. Montella will without a doubt have his side set up similar to how Austria did, which is going to cause the Netherlands a lot of problems.
Once the first goal goes in, this match is going to get off the rails, because neither of these defenses are good enough to park the bus and see the match out. Turkey certainly is not good enough defensively playing a passive defensive structure as they showed against Austria and their press has shown vulnerabilities as well.
All four of Turkey's matches have gone over the total and I am expecting that to happen again here. I have 3.24 goals projected for it, so I like the value on Over 2.5 goals at -125.
