New England vs. Orlando City Odds
| New England Odds | -160 |
| Orlando City Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-160 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated as of Wednesday afternoon via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Things should heat up in the Northeast on Wednesday when New England hosts Orlando City at Gillette Stadium in their Major League Soccer clash.
Following a slow start, manager Bruce Arena and the Revolution have worked their way into the top half (eighth place) of the Eastern Conference, thanks to a six-match unbeaten run in league play. New England enters this fixture fresh off a 2-1 win over Sporting Kansas City in this past Sunday's lone MLS contest.
In contrast, the visitors have been on a nearly three-week hiatus. And Orlando City was anything but good before the break, going winless in three of its last four league games. That recent run of subpar form includes a 3-1 home loss against FC Dallas in a May 28 meeting.
So, let's see where we can find some betting value ahead of this midweek tilt.
New England
Life without talisman Adam Buksa began in the Sporting KC clash following the Poland international's transfer to Ligue 1 side Lens. The standout had a team-best seven goals and two assists in 10 appearances this season.
That's obviously a big hole Arena needs to sort out, but when it comes to depth up at the No. 9 spot, the club might be the most loaded in the league.
Gustavo Bou is healthy and scored a gem against Sporting KC, plus veteran striker Jozy Altidore was specifically brought in from Toronto FC in January to help fill the void created by Buksa's then-anticipated summer transfer.
Goaltender Djordje Petrović looked good against Sporting KC starting in place of Matt Turner, who's on international duty with the United States.
Lineup notes
- Turner will reportedly make his final start in a New England uniform in Sunday's home match against Minnesota United. He then heads to England to join Premier League power Arsenal.
- Expect the Revolution to line up in their 4-2-3-1 formation, with either Bou or Altidore up top. Winger Dylan Borrero, a recent arrival from Brazilian power Atlético Mineiro, was solid in his first start last time out. He went 73 minutes and assisted on Bou's first-half goal.
Two Key Statistics
- 0.77 — Expected goals per 90 minutes Buksa recorded in 10 matches. Bou is next at 0.46 xG/90 minutes, followed by Emmanuel Boateng (0.39), Justin Rennicks (0.27) and Altidore at 0.26 in the category.
- 2 — Total number of shutouts in 14 league outings, which is a concern. New England has conceded at least one goal in the other 12 contests.
Orlando City
The Lions are sitting in fifth place in the East, but this has been more smoke and mirrors than anything else. The visitors have racked up 21 points, yet they’re playing more like a bottom-half side.
Defensive woes have been the problem of late, highlighted by their second-half debacle against FC Dallas. Orlando City led 1-0 after a half, but conceded three goals in a 17-minute span en route to the setback.
That defeat marked the third time in the Lions' last four games where they gave up at least two goals, with Montreal scoring four in a May 7 matchup.
Lineup note
- Leonardo Campana leads Orlando City with seven goals in league play. His status for this match is up in the air after he went 30-plus minutes in Ecuador's 1-0 win against Cape Verde in a June 11 friendly.
Two Key Statistics
- -0.39 — Orlando City's xGDiff through 14 games, which is second worst among 14 teams in the Eastern Conference.
- 15.8 — Total xG created this season, which is also second worst in the East.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Knowing both offenses don't often get shut out and that the defenses rarely secure clean sheets, I'm going to get creative with my wager.
That said, I'm backing a Single Game Parlay pairing Both Teams To Score (Yes) with the total staying under 4.5 goals at +135 odds via BetMGM as my top pick. New England played in brutal heat last time out, so heavy legs could play a role for the hosts and lead to a potential low-scoring affair.
The Pick: Single Game Parlay — Both Teams To Score (Yes) & Total Under 4.5 Goals (+135)
