Newcastle vs Leicester City Odds
Newcastle Odds | -275 |
Leicester City Odds | +600 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110 / -138) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-143 / +105) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Closing out the weekend in the Premier League, Newcastle welcome Leicester City to St. James’ Park in a pivotal match at both ends of the table on Monday night.
A win or draw for the Magpies would clinch their place in the Champions League for next season.
Meanwhile, the Foxes have two matches to climb out of the relegation zone, entering the game three points away from safety in 19th.
Following the results of other teams, everything is there to play for in this fixture. So, let’s dive in to find the best betting value on the board.
Newcastle About to Earn Major Achievement in Deserved Fashion
After finishing in 11th last season, not many were expecting manager Eddie Howe’s team to qualify for the UCL, but the club has an excellent chance of doing so.
One of the keys to the success during this campaign has been the form at home, where the Magpies only trail Manchester City in xGDiff (+25.7) and xG (41.2) in home matches, according to fbref.com.
This was on display recently when Newcastle claimed dominant victories at St. James’ Park. Howe’s side defeated Brighton 4-1 in the midweek win, which has come after recent triumphs over Southampton (3-1) and Tottenham Hotspur (6-1).
The man scoring a lot of the goals has been striker Callum Wilson, who has eight goals in his last six games. The England international has also found the back of the net in four of his last five home matches.
Leicester City Need Luck to Turn Around
On April 10, Dean Smith was hired to save Leicester from the drop, but the former Aston Villa manager has only picked up one victory in his six games in charge.
However, there are signs that show the team hasn’t been performing as bad as the results.
The Foxes have posted a +2.5 xGDiff since Smith became manager, but they own a -6 goal difference. Smith’s squad desperately needs the luck to be on their side in the final two games.
One of the main reasons behind the struggles this campaign has been poor goalkeeping play. Regardless of if it’s Danny Ward or Daniel Iversen, they both own a negative post-shot xG minus goals allowed record, which is not good for a side fighting for survival.
Newcastle vs Leicester City Pick
When I look at this game, there is one play that sticks out as solid betting value in a match where I’m expecting goals.
My best bet is a Single Game Parlay, pairing both teams to score and the total going over two goals at -105 odds.
I don’t have to sell anyone on whether Newcastle will score, but I also believe the numbers show that Leicester is good value to find the back of the net.
Under Smith, the Foxes have scored in five of six matches, averaging 2.23 xG and 3.17 big chances per 90 minutes. They have also gotten on the scoresheet in eight of nine against top 10 sides on the road.
Once you add in the poor defending and goalkeeping, it all makes sense as to why this play would have cashed in seven trips to teams in the top half of the table.
The Magpies also haven’t been picking up clean sheets as they did early on in the campaign, blanking just one opponent at home in the last eight games.
