Newcastle United vs. Southampton Odds, Picks, Preview: Total Has Value in Saturday EPL Match

Newcastle vs. Southampton Odds

Both Newcastle United and Southampton will still be searching for their first league wins of the season when they meet at St. James' Park on Saturday afternoon.

Southampton will feel arguably better about their opening two EPL matches. The Saints responded from a disappointing opening defeat at Everton with a hard-earned home draw against Manchester United.

Meanwhile, Newcastle have opened with consecutive multi-goal defeats home to West Ham and away to Aston Villa.

These sides split the league points last season, with each winning on their home turf.

Can Newcastle Hold a Lead?

The most frustrating part of this early season for Magpies supporters won't necessarily be the results but how they've come about.

Losing to a West Ham team that finished sixth in the table last season — and six places above themselves — wasn't by itself disastrous.

But Newcastle twice took the lead in that one before conceding three times in a 13-minute stretch of the second half.

Then at Villa, the Tynesiders created arguably the better chances from the run of play.

But Callum Williams contributed a shocking early breakaway miss. Then came Danny Ings' brilliant bicycle-kick goal and a second through Anwar El Ghazi on a needlessly conceded penalty.

If there's a bright side, it's that Newcastle have given away spot kicks in their opening two matches, skewing results against the overall quality of their play.

That's not likely to continue forever, no matter what the more fatalistic of their supporters might tell you.

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Southampton: [Editorial Language]

Native Geordie Adam Armstrong makes his much-hyped return to Tyneside as Southampton's new center forward against the club where he spent his academy years.

Acquired this offseason from Blackburn Rovers to replace Danny Ings, Armstrong scored Southampton's opener in the loss at Everton and was perhaps even more active despite not scoring in the Man U draw.

Armstrong did contribute in very brief spurts for the first team on Tyneside as a teen, but had to go on loan to find regular football before latching on to second-tier Blackburn with a permanent move in 2018.

The Saints have struck first in both their matches this season, both in games where the casual observer would expected their opponents to press the initiative.

And although they eventually capitulated late after Everton equalized, they were good value for their draw against the Red Devils, offering a genuine attacking a threat in the stages following Bruno Fernandes' leveler.

One last note: The Saints' supporting cast should be high on confidence after taking a starring turn in an 8-0 midweek demolition of Newport County in the second round of the League Cup.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Southampton's counter-pressing style is exactly the kind that can expose motivated but less-than-dominant attacking sides

It can be harder against opponents like Newcastle, who have been relentlessly pragmatic since Steve Bruce took charge in 2019.

It's still early, but the Magpies haven't scored in 270 minutes — including a midweek League Cup tie against Burnley they lost on penalties.

And teams have combined for only 3.8 xG in Newcastle's two matches if you remove penalties conceded. Southampton created less than 1.0 xG in their first two fixtures.

By now you know where I'm going — playing the total under 2.5 goals at -105 odds and a 51.2% implied probability. That's a price that is higher than it usually might be for two teams who would count a mid-table finish as success.

And it reflects good value for two teams with similar squads from a year ago, who generated 3.6 xG combined in their two league meetings last campaign.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-105)