Newcastle and Arsenal open Matchweek 10 of the English Premier League on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 8:30 a.m. ET from St. James' Park in Newcastle.
Ever since they were purchased by PIF, Newcastle have become a different force at home. The promise of financial investment from ownership breathed new life into the Toon Army, and their hopeful roars of support no doubt played a role in keeping the Magpies up in 2021-22, and certainly helped propel them toward Champions League qualification in 2022-23.
Newcastle's opponents this weekend understand this sentiment on two levels. First, Arsenal has seen a similar transformation in the atmosphere of the Emirates over that time frame, although that was a positive externality of the entire club's revolution under Mikel Arteta. Second, they've experienced the hostile environment of "The Cathedral on the Hill" as an away side in each of the last three seasons.
Their top four hopes were obliterated here three campaigns ago, and in their last visit to Tyneside, general frustration with the match — a 1-0 Newcastle victory — led to Arteta delivering a scathing assessment of English referees.
Will Newcastle be able to pull off their third win at home in four years against Arsenal? Read on for my Newcastle vs. Arsenal preview and prediction.
Newcastle vs. Arsenal Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -115 | 2.5 -130o / 100u | -105 |
| Newcastle Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -120 | 2.5 -130o / 100u | +285 |
- Newcastle vs. Arsenal moneyline odds: Newcastle +285, Draw +265, Arsenal -105
- Newcastle vs. Arsenal over/under: 2.5 goals (over -130, under +100)
- Newcastle vs. Arsenal pick: Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: No (+250 at bet365)
I am backing Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: No in Newcastle vs. Arsenal. The best available odds are +250 at bet365.
Newcastle vs. Arsenal Premier League Preview
It's safe to say neither of these sides have gotten off to the starts they would've envisioned in early August. The Gunners, primarily because they've had issues keeping 11 men on the pitch for the entire 90 minutes of games, have only won five of their first nine fixtures, and currently sit five points off Manchester City in first.
As for Newcastle, although financial regulations prevented them from doing the transfer business they would've liked, this is a team that was squaring off with the likes of AC Milan, PSG and Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League this time last year, and now they're not in any European competitions and in 12th in the league table.
Additionally, both sides have had their fair share of injury issues, particularly along the back line. The Magpies will be without Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles, and Kieran Trippier, and Takehiro Tomiyasu and Riccardo Calafiori will definitely be absent for Arsenal.
The London outfit could also travel north without Ben White and Gabriel as well, as Arteta said their availability would come down to the final training session. The same goes for Newcastle forwards Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon, both of whom started in a Carabao Cup tie against Chelsea on Wednesday, but are dealing with slight knocks.
In short, there's a lot up in the air when it comes to both sides' personnel for this contest. While the exact compositions of these two teams' squads tomorrow is in doubt, their approaches to this game are much more certain. Both teams will be aggressive in their out-of-possession approach at 0-0, but that especially applies to Newcastle at home. Their entire ethos is built around closing down the ball at maximum intensity, as they want to force turnovers and subsequently play direct with the transition threat of Isak, Gordon and Harvey Barnes.
If they get forced back, they are comfortable sitting in a 4-5-1 midblock and making things tough for their opponents, much like Arsenal with their 4-4-2 low block. This will not be a game where either team dominates the ball and territory.
Arsenal are willing to be risk-averse in their build-up in these sorts of circumstances, and will likely prioritize playing long into Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka, and then working their way up the pitch and establishing control in the middle third from there. As a result, this match will come down to the Gunners' ability to break down their opponents' settled defensive shape — or, at the very minimum, generating enough set piece opportunities to score from one — and limit Newcastle's attacking transitions.
If Gabriel and White are able to play, that becomes a significantly more winnable battle, as they help Arsenal's rest defense and also provide ball retention and progression down the flanks into Gabriel Martinelli and Saka, respectively.
Newcastle vs. Arsenal Prediction
Over the course of Eddie Howe's Newcastle tenure, he's faced Arsenal six times. At least one team has kept a clean sheet in five of those encounters, and four of those resulted in one side coming away with all three points. That's not a coincidence.
Scoring first is always an advantage, but especially in this fixture with how these two managers have their teams approach the game. Whoever gets the opening goal is then able to sit back, block space and attack the increased space behind the opposition in transition. Arsenal have earned somewhat a reputation of sitting on one-goal leads as of late, and in both of their aforementioned losses at St. James', Newcastle perfectly executed their gameplan of holding firm in their midblock and counter-attacking. None of that will change in this iteration of this fixture.
Newcastle, from my perspective, have lost some of the bite and almost desperation in their defending (likely a result of multiple years of over-exertion) which has made them weaker against the ball, which Arsenal will be able to exploit. Further, if Arsenal are to win this game, it's going to have to involve scoring first, as trying to come back from a deficit in this environment is nearly an impossible task. As a result, I like Arsenal to win and keep a clean sheet while doing so.
If that particular market gives you pause, the Both Teams to Score: No at +105 also provides good value, but safeguards against the possibilities of a goalless draw or a Newcastle win in a similar fashion to previous years.
Newcastle vs. Arsenal pick: Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: No (+250 at bet365)
