As we continue our Premier League predictions for match day 8, Brighton make the trip up North to play Newcastle on Saturday. This looks to be a great matchup, with both teams tied at 12 points in the league table.
Newcastle are coming off a 0-0 draw to Everton in which they should have realistically come out victorious, but that game highlighted the team’s inability to score so far.
Brighton are as unpredictable as ever. They picked up a 3-2 win in a hectic game against Tottenham before the international break after trailing by two goals at half. The team is loaded with talent, especially in the attacking third, but they lack defensive stability.
Here is my Newcastle vs. Brighton prediction.
Newcastle vs. Brighton Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Newcastle Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -105 | 2.5 -205o / +150u | -105 |
| Brighton Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -130 | 2.5 -205o / +150u | +260 |
- Newcastle vs. Brighton moneyline odds: Newcastle -105, Brighton +260, Draw +280
- Newcastle vs. Brighton over/under: 2.5 goals (over -205, under +150)
- Newcastle vs. Brighton pick: Under 3.5
I am backing the under 3.5 in Brighton vs. Newcastle.
Newcastle Preview
One of Newcastle's biggest flaws so far has been their goal-scoring output. The team currently has the 14th-most goals scored and they haven't scored more than two goals in any games this season. Newcastle have therefore been relying on a very strong defense, only conceding the fourth-fewest goals in the Premier League. In fact, besides a 3-1 defeat away at Fulham, the team has never conceded more than one goal.
Alexander Isak only has one goal so far this campaign and has missed the last three games with injuries. Callum Wilson is also questionable for this game, meaning Eddie Howe might have to start a front three with no true center forward. Harvey Barnes has been impressive with three goals, however along with Anthony Gordon, the team cannot solely rely on their output. In terms of injuries, it is worth noting that Kieran Trippier will also miss out.
Newcastle have turned St. James Park into a fortress, not losing at home since the 13th of January and posting a memorable 3-2 loss to Man City. It also looks like Sandro Tonali is back to his best after serving a one-year suspension. Along with Bruno Guimarães and Joelinton, Newscastle boast a very strong midfield that I think Howe's 4-3-3 will overpower Brighton in the center of the field, especially if Fabian Hurzeler opts to continue with his 4-2-3-1 that was victorious against Tottenham.
Brighton Preview
Hurzeler's Brighton like to play attacking football. The team presses high and looks to find its speedster wingers like Mitoma, Minteh or Adingra in 1 v 1 situations. Brighton lead the league in successful take-ons leading to a shot attempt. They high-press to take the opposition by surprise and force mistakes, as was the case in the game against Tottenham.
Brighton are so effective at taking opponents on and they look to put the ball in the box as soon as the wingers/fullbacks see an opening. You can usually find at last three players looking to receive it and it has proven very effective. They perform the third-most crosses in the league and win 53.8% of their aerial duels.
This intense press means Brighton's center backs are very high up the pitch, leaving teams the chance to break in behind as was the case in a 2-2 draw against Nottingham Forest. Chelsea were able to capitalize on this, scoring four goals and continuously exposing Brighton's backline. The Seagulls have committed the second-most errors leading to goals this season in the Premier League. It is worth noting they are tied with Newcastle on that front.
Newcastle vs. Brighton Prediction
Newcastle have underperformed on their expected goals vs actual goals by -2.4. On the other hand, Brighton have over-performed their xG by 2.3. This further confirms that Brighton have no problem putting the ball in the back of the net and Newcastle really can't score. I do think there will be chances for the speed of Gordon to hurt Brighton's backline.
Newcastle are unlikely to lose this game at home, especially to a direct rival, and I see them continuing to struggle to score, but really it is on their midfield to do most of the job both offensively and defensively. Brighton will look to do what they do best which is cause chaos for the opposition, and I don't see them having the same scoring output as usual.
Pick: Under 3.5 (-155 via DraftKings)
