Newcastle vs Brighton Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -182 |
| Brighton Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -300o / +240u |
It's likely fair to say both teams in this fixture didn't have the seasons they imagined coming off the back of superb campaigns a year ago.
Brighton, who appointed Roberto De Zerbi after Graham Potter left to take the Chelsea job, finished sixth with 62 points, securing European qualification last season. Now, having been knocked out of the Europa League, the Seagulls sit in 11th with three matches to play.
Injuries have taken their toll — the departures of Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo in the summer too — and a top-seven finish looks impossible, but if there's a silver lining for Brighton supporters it's that De Zerbi looks to be staying this summer.
Newcastle, in their first full season under Saudi ownership, had a breakthrough campaign in 2022/23, finishing fourth to get back into the Champions League for the first time in two decades.
This year was expected to build off that success, but injuries and midweek European fixtures pushed the Eddie Howe's squad to the brink, and the Magpies exited the Champions League in the group stage and were in the bottom half of the table as recently as early March. There certainly won't be any European Tuesday and Wednesday nights at St. James' Park again next season.
While there's little either club can do to achieve their preseason goals, they can still finish the season on a high note, and a win in this fixture would go a long way toward doing so.
Read on for my Newcastle vs Brighton pick and prediction and Premier League match preview.
Newcastle
Newcastle have rebounded slightly in recent weeks. They've won six of their nine league fixtures since the start of March and won their previous two matches by a combined score of 9-2 — albeit against relegation sides Sheffield United and Burnley.
Unfortunately, the injury bug has persisted, claiming center backs Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles and Fabian Schar all in the last month. At Turf Moor on Saturday, Howe started a pairing of Emil Krafth and Dan Burn in central defense, which doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.
Having also been dealing with absences in midfield, Howe switched to a 4-4-2 out-of-possession shape over the last two fixtures. This has had the added benefit of allowing Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak to play as a strike pairing, but with Joelinton making his return from injury last time out, Howe will have the option to shift back to a midfield trio in a 4-5-1.
As always, the Magpies are a high-pressing, high-intensity side that loves to profit from transitions and wide combinations. That holds especially true when they're at home, but with less capable defenders, especially against a technically adept outfit like Brighton, Howe might have to deploy a slightly less aggressive, risk-averse defensive setup.
Brighton
After a terrible run of fixtures and form, Brighton recorded their first league win in nearly two months on Sunday over Aston Villa, with Joao Pedro scoring the lone goal of the match in the 87th minute. Unlike their opponents in this one, whose injury issues have hit the positions in the central channels, the Seagulls have had a plethora of fitness issues on the flanks.
Wingers Kaoru Mitoma and Solly March are still out and fullbacks Pervis Estupinan, Tariq Lamptey and Jack Hinshelwood have been dealing with issues. On top of all that, Evan Ferguson has been missing for a month. That last bit is possibly the most crucial, as the Irish striker scored a hat trick in the reverse fixture, powering Brighton to a 3-1 win.
The Seagulls have one of the most distinct and unwavering styles in the Premier League, and that's all down to the work of De Zerbi. The lack of deviation from Plan A is both a positive and negative, and in these away fixtures it becomes more of a negative with Brighton's rest defense often struggling to stymie transition threats high up the pitch and conceding high-quality chances.
Plus, with Newcastle likely to press high, trying to play out of the back with intricate passing moves sometimes only puts them in more trouble. Granted, when these sides met at the Amex in September, Burn, playing as a center back, struggled to track the vertical movements of Brighton's center forwards, so there might be scope for them to take advantage once again on Saturday.
Newcastle vs Brighton
Prediction
Generally, St. James' Park isn't a fun place for away teams to play. We saw what happened to Brighton in their visit last season, as Newcastle completely blew them out of the water en route to a 4-1 victory. I expect Newcastle to dominate once again, especially as Brighton won't be able to cope with their transition threat. However, with the slew of defensive injuries the Magpies have suffered, plus Brighton's extremely high technical level, the visitors will be able to generate a few chances of their own.
Thus, I like the value at +140 on both teams to score and Newcastle to win. There should be enough opportunities for Brighton to get on the scoresheet, but this type of match is Newcastle's bread and butter, and they should be able to capitalize.
