Newcastle vs Dortmund Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -182 |
| Dortmund Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
Newcastle look to stay atop of Group F when they host Dortmund at St. James Park.
They are in fine form right now coming off a 4-0 win over Crystal Palace this past weekend. The Magpies destroyed PSG the last time they were out in the Champions League and given the form they are in, they can do the exact same thing to Dortmund.
Dortmund are on a crazy 16-match unbeaten run the Bundesliga, but their form in the Champions League has been a completely different story. They lost their opening round match to PSG pretty handily and then played a snoozy 0-0 draw with AC Milan in the last round. They are at the bottom of the group and need points in a hurry if they are going to get to the knockout stage.
Here is my Newcastle vs Dortmund prediction.
Newcastle
What makes Newcastle so freightening to play against is how good they are at pressing you when you try to build out of the back. Newcastle consistently turn opponents over with their man-to-man press, which creates a golden transition opportunity to create a boatload of chances. The Magpies have forced 87 high turnovers in nine matches, 12 of which have led to a shot. They are the most physical team in the world to play through and when attackers like Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon and Miguel Almirón running at you at full speed after forcing a turnover in build up play, it can be very difficult to defend. It's also why Newcastle have created 13 big scoring chances, which is the most in the Premier League.
The Newcastle defense has been incredibly difficult to break down because of that high press. The Magpies are only allowing 1.04 xG per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season and are a very good transition defense, perfect for this match against Dortmund.
It's incredibly difficult to beat Newcastle at St. James Park, which has become one of the best home field advantages in world football. Newcastle have a 1.46 xGD per 90 minutes and have only lost three matches in total at home. They also are one of the best front runners in the world as well. When Newcastle have a lead they have a +2.55 xGD per 90 minutes because of that devastating high press.
Dortmund
The term "fraud" comes to mind when discussing Dortmund. Yes, they are unbeaten in the Bundesliga this season, but they have not played Bayern Munich, Stuttgart, RB Leipzig or Leverkusen yet.
Their first match against PSG is a good indication of what is likely going to happen here. Dortmund lost Jude Bellingham, who was everything not only to their attack, but also their ball stopping in the middle of the pitch. Without him, they are relying on Emre Can, who is not anywhere close to the level of player Bellingham is.
Against PSG, Dortmund consistently kept turning the ball over in their own end, succumbing to PSG's high press. Dortmund turned the ball over in their own end of the pitch nine times and allowed PSG to have a PPDA of 6.7.
PSG 2 : 0 Dortmund
▪ xG: 2.56 – 0.65
▪ xThreat: 1.73 – 1.18
▪ Possession: 67.1% – 32.9%
▪ Field Tilt: 77.1% – 22.9%
▪ Def Action Height: 49.1 – 35.4#msbot_ucl#uclpic.twitter.com/daX5HldPMJ— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) September 19, 2023
Combined in the Champions League so far, Dortmund have conceded 4.0 xG to both PSG and AC Milan, but have been lucky to only concede twice.
The other problem for Dortmund is for the better part of a year now they have been poor at defending set pieces. This year they are 12th in the Bundesliga in xG per set piece allowed, while Newcastle since the start of last season are top five in the Premier League in xG created off of set pieces.
Dortmund are also struggling to get inside the opponent's box once they get into the final third. They have a 27.4% final third to box entry conversion rate, which is 13th in the Bundesliga.Niclas Füllkrug is the only attacker with an xG per 90 minute scoring rate over 0.40, so Dortmund are still searching for a dominant front man in the final third.
Newcastle vs Dortmund Prediction
Champions League Odds & Picks
This has the makings of a Newcastle blowout written all over it.
Dortmund are a team that likes to play out of the back and if they are as sloppy as they were against PSG, then Newcastle are going to absolutely destroy them with their high press. So, if Dortmund then decide to evade the high press by sending the ball long via goal kicks then they are now playing a primarily transitional match with probably the best transition team in the entire world.
With how ruthless Newcastle are once they get a lead and given how well they've performed at St. James Park, this is a good opportunity to chase a big price.
So, I like the value on Newcastle -1.5 at +170.
