Newcastle vs Everton Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -110 |
| Everton Odds | +275 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
Newcastle look to build off of their comeback win over the weekend when they host Everton at St. James Park.
Newcastle looked dead in the water on Saturday, falling behind 3-1 against West Ham before storming back to win the match 4-3. The win now puts the Magpies into eighth place and on the cusp of a Europa Conference league spot. However, Eddie Howe is in the middle of an injury crisis, so we will see how long Newcastle can stay this far up the table.
Everton found a new way to lose on Saturday against Bournemouth as Seamus Coleman chested the ball into his own net in stoppage time. Everton have not won a Premier League match in 2024, but they are way overdue for a positive result. With another points deduction looming, Everton need every point possible from now until the end of the season, so they really need a result here at St. James Park.
Let's dive into Newcastle vs Everton.
Newcastle
Newcastle are completely toast defensively because of all of their injuries. Now Lascelles is injured, which means Fabian Schar is the only true center back they have available. Some of the goals they allowed to West Ham on Saturday as well are the exact types of goals that Everton score – in transition and long balls. The first West Ham goal was a simple long ball over the top of Newcastle’s high line that could have been easily defended with a little communication. However, since Newcastle are so short-handed, trying to play a high line with guys who haven’t played with each other very often leads to mistakes.
In addition to that, Newcastle are one of the worst teams in the Premier League at defending set pieces. The Magpies allow the fourth-highest xG per set piece, which is terrible news against Everton, who have the highest xG per set piece and have created the most expected goals off of corners.
The other aspect of Newcastle that has drastically declined is their high press. Because of injuries to Joelinton, Sven Botman and Lewis Miley, they have decided to be incredibly aggressive in their pressing structure by bringing their back line high up the pitch to man mark the opposing attackers. This has caused transition based teams like Luton, Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and West Ham to all find space in behind the last line of defense because Newcastle’s back line is slow. Since they made this switch to their pressing structure against Aston Villa they have conceded 14.1 expected goals in their last eight matches.
Everton
The bad luck continues for Everton and their loss to Bournemouth optimizes the perception of underlying performance versus results. Outside of one miscommunication between the center backs that led to the Solanke goal, Bournemouth would have only created 0.56 expected goals for the match. Even after the Solanke goal in the 63rd minute, Bournemouth did not take a shot.
Everton have drastically underperformed their expected results offensively, which is the reason why they've run so bad. Everton have only scored 30 goals, but have created 43.2 expected goals, with a lot of those chances coming off of set pieces. The Toffees have become pretty reliant on set pieces to create a lot of their chances, which is not uncommon for a Sean Dyche-coached team. Everton have scored the second-most goals in the Premier League off of corners, but have created the most expected goals. So, a matchup like this where they can have a distinct advantage creating chances from dead ball situations against a bad set piece defense should give them a great opportunity at putting the ball in the back of the net.
This is also a great matchup for Everton because it is going to be very transitional, which is where they are at their best from open play. The Toffees are not going to succumb to Newcastle's high press because they are going to send the ball long whenever they get a chance and create chances in transition.
Newcastle vs Everton
Prediction
Even though Everton haven't won a Premier League match since December, they are well overdue for a positive result and this is the perfect type of matchup for them. The two things that Everton do well when they have the ball is attacking in transition and creating chances off of set pieces. Those are two areas where Newcastle are incredibly weak. In fact, Newcastle are allowing the highest final third to box entry conversion rate, so the Toffees will have their chances. It comes down whether they can finish them.
Newcastle's injury crisis is incredibly detrimental to the style that Eddie Howe wants to play. Not having his full starting XI available has put him in a position where they have to try to outscore teams, because they aren't good enough playing passively in their 4-5-1 that they tried in the middle of the season.
Everton pounded Newcastle in the previous meeting at Goodison Park. They created 3.3 expected goals, won the match 3-0 and all three of their goals came in transition, which is where Newcastle are weakest.
I only have Newcastle projected at +136, so I like the value on Everton +0.5 at -106.
