Newcastle vs Fulham Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -125 |
| Fulham Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +120 |
Newcastle crashed out of European competition on Wednesday with a 2-1 loss at home to AC Milan and now will be entirely focused on the domestic competitions for the remainder of the season. Given the injury and fatigue crisis that has impacted Eddie Howe's side in the last month, losing out on Europe should benefit their Premier League performances.
The Magpies have been dramatically downgraded by the market in the last few weeks and are now just a short home favorite against vastly improved Fulham. Newcastle have just two wins, one draw and five losses in their last eight matches. Compare their form to the Cottagers and you can see why the market has moved so far down on Newcastle's three-way moneyline.
Fulham have scored 16 goals in four matches. They won three of them, and the only loss came on two last second goals by Liverpool at Anfield in a 4-3 defeat. Marco Silva's side has been enjoying a recent hot run of winning at home against mediocre teams like Wolves, West Ham and Nottingham Forest. This is a huge step up in class and it's time to fade the Cottagers in a classic buy-low, sell-high spot.
Here is why I'm betting the Magpies in Newcastle vs Fulham.
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Newcastle
If you compare some of the recent closing line prices for Newcastle, this one doesn't make a ton of sense. Newcastle have been considerably worse in the Champions League than the Premier League, yet Newcastle closed -110 at home against AC Milan just Wednesday. The Magpies closed -110 at home against Manchester United at home too. Despite both clubs' struggles, both would be power rated above Fulham by any xG model or team strength rating system.
Now, the consensus ML price for Newcastle is -120, and the Magpies have gotten some very positive injury news. Not only did Callum Wilson start against Milan and play well in the match, but key defender Dan Burn came off the bench. Sean Longstaff has been available on the bench the last two matches too.
One major problem was that they had so many injuries they had to play the exact same XI three times a week for multiple weeks. The lack of usable subs and rotation elements led to fatigue. Newcastle plays a style that needs physicality, energy and pressing ability. When they went on the road against quality teams like PSG, Everton and Spurs, they completely flailed.
The home performances haven't really wavered though. Newcastle dominated both Chelsea and Manchester United at home and were in total control of AC Milan for the first hour. At one point, Newcastle had outshot Milan 13-1. It wasn't until Milan scored a fluke equalizer against the run of play that the game became extremely haywire because of the must-win nature for both teams.
The Magpies have a +1.44 xG difference per 90 minutes when playing at home this year. Only Liverpool have better underlying numbers at home.
Fulham
Raul Jimenez's recent hot run of form and some excellent finishing variance has propelled Fulham into one of the league's best attacks in the last month. If you looked at the Cottagers underlying profile, the ball progression and possession numbers were never poor. The biggest issues were lack of a striker and too many giveaways in their own half that left the defense exposed. Fulham are right around league average in touches in the midfield and attacking third. Yet they were getting almost no shots, no box touches and no goals because of the hole at striker.
They've scored 16 goals from 8.1 xG in the last four matches. Jimenez, even after this hot run, is at just 2.17 shots per 90 and 0.31 xG per 90. Silva's system does an excellent job of getting production from the midfield players like Andreas Pereira and Alex Iwobi, but the whole system still feels a bit unstable to me.
Defensively, Fulham make up for their mediocre defensive line by being extremely aggressive and taking a lot of risk. Antonee Robinson had a whopping 17 tackles + interceptions in the game against Liverpool and Mo Salah, for example. The Cottagers are second in the Premier League in tackles + interceptions per 90, just ahead of Spurs and behind only Everton. If you were trying to build a makeshift squad work given the personnel, Silva deserves credit for getting the most out of this squad.
Fulham are still 17th in xGD away from home. They've over-performed their xG to get to their league average position and goal difference. This is probably the high water mark of their entire year.
Newcastle vs Fulham
Prediction
Newcastle are finally getting healthier and as poor as they've been away from home, the Magpies home form remains elite. The market is suggesting that Newcastle are only marginally better than Fulham right now and while the last five matches would tell you that's true, it's a clear overreaction to recent form.
Fulham's aggressive defensive style still concedes a handful of high quality chances per match, and that's exactly how Newcastle have built their attacking style under Howe. Low shot volume, high shot quality and goals.
I'd bet Newcastle on the moneyline at -150 or better.
