Newcastle United vs Man City Odds
| Newcastle United Odds | +390 |
| Man City Odds | -150 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -167 / +130 |
Eddie Howe and his struggling Newcastle side will be hosting Pep Guardiola and Manchester City, where both teams will be desperate for all three points. These sides have been trending in opposite directions in the league as of late.
Newcastle have lost five of their last six league matches dating back to the first week of December. They currently sit ninth in the Premier League with 29 points, 11 points behind the top four. This year has been a massive disappointment, but there is still time to turn things around, especially with Newcastle getting some players back from injury.
Since their December 6th loss to Aston Villa, Manchester City have gone unbeaten in eight matches across all competitions. This has moved them up to third in the Premier League, just five points off top of the table Liverpool.
Let's get into how I see Newcastle vs Man City playing out and how to bet this one.
Newcastle United
Despite the struggles that Newcastle have faced this year, they have still been one of the most dangerous sides going forward in the Premier League. They have also been one of the best teams in the league at St. James Park all season. Newcastle have picked up 24 points in their 10 matches at home this season, the third-highest total in the league. In those 10 matches, they have also accumulated an xG total of 23.9, the second-highest in the league.
The issue for this Newcastle side this season has been their defensive efficiency. Last season, Newcastle conceded a total of 33 goals over the 38 match season. This year they have already conceded 29 in just 20 matches. To be fair to them, they have had numerous injuries to their back line, such as Nick Pope, Sven Botman and Dan Burn. These are three of their most consistent defensive players and without them they were not the same side.
The concerning part for Newcastle fans should be that even though they have suffered a number of injuries this year, the players they have brought in have not been the only reason for their losses. The goalkeeper that has come in for Pope, Martin Dúbravka, has only started six matches this season, yet has saved over 3 expected goals. This shows that there are bigger issues than just the injuries for this side.
The biggest issue for Eddie Howe's men this year has without a doubt been their away form. They have only picked up five points away from home this season. When a side is so dominant at home, yet so vulnerable away from home, it usually means there is a confidence issue within the squad. Luckily for them, this match is being held at St. James Park and there is no doubt that Manchester City coming into town will light a fire in these Newcastle players to turn their season around.
Man City
Manchester City have seem to find their form again. Pep's men have scored a combined 17 goals in their last 6 matches, with five of them being victories. After not being at their best for the first couple months of the season, they still find themselves third in the Premier League. Not to mention, they have gone on this good run of form without Erling Haaland. Oh, and Kevin De Bruyne is now healthy after being out for four months.
One slight cause for concern for Manchester City this season has been that they have been one of the most efficient sides in the league this year in terms of goalscoring. They have over-performed their expected goals by 7 throughout the first 20 matches. Normally this would call for some regression as it is unlikely that a team can finish at this good of a rate for an entire season, but a team like Manchester City can be an anomaly to this due to the sheer quality of the players at their disposal. Better finishers will naturally over perform their xG number and Manchester City's entire squad is full of players who are fantastic finishers.
During this immense run of form, Pep has started playing a 4-2-3-1 with Phil Foden playing right behind Julian Álvarez, while Grealish and Bernardo Silva are on the wings. This set up has allowed for a fluid front four as these players all have so much quality on the ball, while also possessing such incredible passing abilities. This new set up that Pep has put together is only as a result of Haaland's injury, but it has worked wonders for this side. Julian Álvarez has proved that he can be an elite No. 9 in one of the best sides in the world and opposing sides have not figured out how to stop the fluid front four that Pep has implemented seamlessly in to this side.
It is unsure whether or not Haaland will be healthy for this match, but if he is I am curious as to whether he will slot him right back up front, or stick with the system that has been working so well. Either way, City are one of the most dangerous sides in the world and home field advantage is not so effective when playing against Manchester City.
Newcastle United vs Man City
Prediction
Newcastle are still dealing with a fair few injuries. Callum Wilson, Harvey Barnes, Elliot Anderson, Jacob Murphy, Joe Willock and Nick Pope are all still out for this match. Even if Newcastle can keep Manchester City at bay, Howe does not have much at his disposal off the bench to create any sort of spark later in the match.
Guardiola has a few options in this match depending on whether Haaland is healthy. Even so, I expect to see all of Foden, Grealish and Bernardo starting as they have been so efficient going forward.
Because of the defensive issues that Newcastle have had all season long, as well as the fact that they have been so good going forward at home, I will be taking both teams to score in this match. I have this at -170 so to get it at -140 is enough value for me to love this bet.
