Man City look to remain atop the Premier League table when they travel to St. James Park to take on Newcastle.
Newcastle suffered their first loss of the season at Craven Cottage last weekend, losing 3-1 to Fulham. Even with that loss it's been a positive start to season for the Magpies as they look for their second top four finish in three years. They lost all three meetings against Manchester City last season, but they played them incredibly tough, so they will be no pushovers for the defending champions.
Manchester City got a late equalizer against Arsenal over the weekend in the biggest match so far this Premier League season. They were dealt a big blow in the process as one of their most important players, Rodri, tore his ACL and is now done for the season. This is a tough stretch for Manchester City as this will be their fifth match in the last two weeks with a trip to Slovakia coming up on Tuesday in the Champions League.
Let's get into my Newcastle vs. Man City prediction.
Newcastle vs. Man City Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Newcastle Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +130 | 2.5 -200o / +162u | +400 |
| Man City Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -165 | 2.5 -200o / +162u | -165 |
- Newcastle vs. Man City moneyline odds: Newcastle +400, Man City -165, Draw +350
- Newcastle vs. Man City over/under: 2.5 goals (over -200, under +162)
- Newcastle vs. Man City pick: Newcastle +1
I am backing Newcastle +1 in Man City vs. Newcastle.
Newcastle Preview
Newcastle have been much better in their passive defensive shape than they were last season. It’s typically a 4-5-1 for Eddie Howe’s side, as they rely on pressing triggers on when to unleash their devastating man to man press. The thing they have done much better this season is being compact and reducing the space in between the lines. That space in between the lines killed them last year and a lot of it had to do with them being forced into playing that structure because of injuries. Now that they’ve had more time playing in it, they’ve been much better and will make life difficult for Manchester City when they try to overload the middle.
Eddie Howe has tried something a little different this season and is having his team build out of the back more often to try and control matches better. However, as they showed against Tottenham, when they have the chance to play direct and hit teams in transition, they will do it quickly and effectively. Their offense may not be putting up crazy underlying numbers like they did last year, but they have still created at least 1.5 expected goals in their last four matches.
Because Manchester City are committing so many bodies forward and consistently looking to overload the middle, they are vulnerable to counterattacks. There have been so many instances where teams have had either numerical advantages or 3 v 3 or 2 v 2 breaks against City but haven’t been able to capitalize. Newcastle are one of the best transition teams in the world and City found out what happens when you go 2 v 2 in transition against Gordon and Isak.
Man City Preview
Get used to what happened against Manchester City when they played Arsenal on Saturday because that is going to become the norm from now on. When Arsenal went down to 10 men, they sat in a variation of a 5-4 or 6-3, played as low of a defensive line as possible and completely cut off any space through the middle.
Guardiola is obsessed with controlling the middle of the pitch and everyone knows it. So, teams are sitting as compact and as narrow as possible, which means there is no space to pass the ball through the middle even if they have a 5 v 4 or 6 v 5 overload. Manchester City have big issues because they have lost Rodri for the season and Kevin De Bruyne might not play in this match.
Without Rodri, City lose ultimate control over a match, with Kovacic now thrusted into that role. However, I think the biggest loss by far is De Bruyne. He was so pivotal in their 3-2 win over Newcastle at St. James Park last season because he is the one player on Manchester City that can consistently play in between the lines and play balls over the top of a low defensive block. If you watched Manchester City vs. Arsenal it was very evident no matter who they brought on, City don't have a creator even close to the level of De Bruyne.
Newcastle vs Man City Prediction
This is a really tough spot for Manchester City given two of their best players are injured going into St. James Park, which is one of the most hostile environments in English football. Newcastle have a +1.23 xGD per 90 minutes since the start of the 2022-23 season.
Newcastle are one of the few teams in the Premier League that can really hurt Manchester City in transition. They are so good at playing long balls over the top and there will be multiple times in this match where they have numerical advantages in transition. With the prowess of Isak and Gordon in those transition moments they can score and pull off a big upset on Saturday.
If both teams were at full strength, I would have Manchester City projected at -137, but that is not the case, so I like the value on Newcastle +1 at -112.
