Newcastle vs PSG Odds
| Newcastle Odds | +130 |
| PSG Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
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One of the headliners of matchday two in the Champions League takes place at St. James' Park as Newcastle take on Kylian Mbappe and PSG.
Newcastle had the hardest schedule to begin the Premier League season, losing three matches to Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton. However, they have rebounded by outscoring Sheffield United and Burnley by a combined 10-0 over the past two weeks and are really starting to find their form under Eddie Howe. They've made St. James' Park a fortress, having one of the best home records in all of Europe, so it's going to be very difficult environment for PSG.
Luis Enrique's PSG really isn't in that great of form coming into this match. They just drew Clermont Foot 0-0 over the weekend, which dropped them to fifth in the Ligue 1 standings. They got a dominant 2-0 win over Dortmund in their opening Champions League match, but historically PSG have not been great away from home in the Champions League, winning only two of their last eight matches outside of Paris.
Here is my Newcastle vs PSG pick.
Newcastle
This match sets up perfectly for Newcastle tactically because they are actually at their best when they are without the ball. Take their league cup win over Manchester City as an example. Newcastle allowed Pep Guardiola's side to control a large share of the possession but did a fantastic job disrupting their build up play and were deadly in transition.
Newcastle 1 : 0 Man City
▪ xG: 1.76 – 0.6
▪ xThreat: 1.12 – 1.62
▪ Possession: 32.9% – 67.1%
▪ Field Tilt: 29.1% – 70.9%
▪ Def Action Height: 44.8 – 54.3 pic.twitter.com/cOmMgn9n7Y— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) September 27, 2023
In that match, Newcastle forced nine high turnovers against the best team in the world because their man-to-man press is so devastating. They are the most physical team in the world to play through and are deadly in transition when they win the ball high with attackers like Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak, who have combined for six goals already this season.
Newcastle’s high press, at home, is the first big test of this PSG team, to see how courageous will be Henrique’s build-up. Ugarte will play a key role in that first phase of build-up (moves, passes between the lines) given Eddie Howe’s potential plan to do a man-to-man press. pic.twitter.com/UfiYdsMrEh
— Mar’tics (@martics97) October 2, 2023
Even though Newcastle have been pouring in the goals the last two games, the underrated part of their team is how rock solid they are defensively. After playing the toughest schedule to begin the season, the Magpies are only allowing 1 xG per 90 minutes in the Premier League. Their usual back four is healthy after Sven Botman missed a few matches.
PSG
Things have changed under Luis Enrique and the transfers PSG brought this summer are moves toward his possession-dominant style. With the Spanish National Team, Enrique put a massive amount of emphasis on game control and controlling a large share of the possession. Through seven matches, PSG are averaging an absurd 71.6% possession. PSG already have 192 10+ pass sequences in four matches, which is 91 more than the next-closest team.
As we’ve seen with Luis Enrique’s Spain, if you can press his teams effectively you can exploit them in transition. Nice did a fantastic job of both exploiting them in transition for two goals and forcing a bunch of high turnovers, which led to the first goal. If Nice were able to disrupt their build up play on the road, by sitting off and setting pressing traps, then Newcastle should have a fantastic matchup here.
The biggest change with PSG is what they are going to be doing out of possession. While Messi, Neymar and Mbappe were a world class front three, they did very little defensive work. That meant PSG were often defending with seven guys and having to sit in low blocks, which they weren't very effective in when they had to play top sides. So far in Ligue 1 they have a PPDA of 8.0, which is significantly better than last year.
While that is great, it’s also going to play into Newcastle’s hands because it’s going to leave space in behind that first line of the press to allow Newcastle to get forward in a transition opportunity.
Newcastle vs PSG
Pick & Prediction
Given what Nice were able to do to PSG in their Ligue 1 match a few weeks ago, it's really concerning how PSG are going to consistently and effectively play through Newcastle's man to man press. Dominating possession and passing the ball a thousand times looks great on paper, but trying to do that against one of the best out of possession sides in the world is a very dangerous game to play.
Plus, let’s not forget this is Newcastle at St. James Park. They have only lost three times since the beginning of last year and have a +1.47 xGD per 90 minutes at home number.
I have Newcastle projected as a -101 favorite, so I love the value on them draw no bet at -110.
