Newcastle vs Sheffield United Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -450 |
| Sheffield United Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +650 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -125/+100 |
Sheffield United could be officially relegated from the Premier League on Saturday if the Blades lose at Newcastle. The Blades are 10 points back from 17th-place Nottingham Forest with four matches to play. Barring another points deduction, they're going to need to win all four, and get help, to avoid a return to the second tier of English football.
Meanwhile, Newcastle is in the heart of the race for the Europa League and a top-six finish. The Magpies are three points behind Manchester United with five matches to play and still face off against them at Old Trafford in the penultimate match of their season.
Sheffield took multiple leads against Manchester United in the midweek and have shown renewed attacking intent through Gustavo Hamer and Ben Brereton Diaz, but the defense is nearing historical levels of bad and could concede 100 goals this year.
Newcastle
Newcastle was blanked in the midweek against Crystal Palace, but that was just a poor 90 minutes in the midst of what has otherwise been a clear top four attacking side when fit this season. The Magpies have had Alexander Isak, Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon all fit for this recent stretch of matches, and all three have produced at a clip of 0.52 NPxG + xA per 90 or better this season. Isak and Barnes are all the way up at 0.77, which is clear top-six level attacking production this season.
The recent home matches have been especially encouraging for Newcastle. They thrashed Wolves 3-0 at home with 2.1 xG, then followed it up by scoring four on West Ham, tying Everton 1-1 (2.3 xG) and beating Spurs 4-0. Newcastle isn't nearly as good defensively as it was last year, but the Magpies remain excellent at playing with the lead. Eddie Howe's sides have been consistently good front runners for multiple years because of their ability to seek and exploit 1-on-1s in space.
The Magpies rank second in the Premier League in final third to box entry conversion rate and continue to be top five in xG per 90 and second in big scoring chances created. Sheffield United can't just settle for or play for a draw here, so this match should be plenty open, which plays into Newcastle's strengths as an attack.
Sheffield United
Sheffield United is clearly the worst team in the league this season, even if Luton's underlying defensive numbers are almost as bad. Sheffield United is last in shot differential, box entry differential, field tilt and are also a full 27 goals apart from the next worst team by goal differential.
Not many expected the Blades to remain in the Premier League, but the market entering the season didn't expect them to be the worst overall team. The goalkeeper issues and the lack of defending have persisted throughout, but the attack has shown some real promise in the past month.
If you sort the Premier League data by just the past 10 weeks, Sheffield United rises to 14th in xG created at 1.28 per match.
Prediction
Newcastle vs Sheffield United
My projections have Newcastle favored by a full two goals once home-field advantage is taken into account, so there's no value for me in the side. But given that Sheffield United's attack has been marginally better, Newcastle is an excellent front runner with incentive to run up the score and Sheffield United has to play to win from the opening kick, this total is still a bit low at just 3.5.
I'd make this number closer to 3.75, and thus would bet Over 3.5 at -120 or better.
Pick: Over 3.5 Goals (-120 or Better)
