Newcastle vs Tottenham Odds
| Newcastle Odds | +150 |
| Tottenham Odds | +150 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -275 / +220 |
Newcastle and Tottenham meet for what should be the most entertaining match of the weekend.
Newcastle secured a late draw at Bournemouth over the weekend and look really impressive offensively. Now they will be back at St. James' Park, where they have been brilliant over the past two seasons. They routed Tottenham 4-0 at home towards the end of last season because they are Ange Postecoglu's kryptonite.
Tottenham were very impressive in match week two, routing Everton 4-0 at home. Spurs have big aspirations this season to get back into the Champions League. They were poor away from home last season, especially defensively, which needs to change immediately or else Newcastle are going to run rampant again on them.
Read on for my Newcastle vs Tottenham prediction.
Newcastle
If there is a team that sets up perfectly to play against Ange Postecoglu, it’s Eddie Howe’s Newcastle. They are one of the better transition teams in the Premier League because when they win the ball as they can hit you in an instant.
They beat a full strength Tottenham towards the end of last season because of a couple different things. First up, with Spurs playing a high line, Newcastle were constantly playing balls over the top with a ton of success. Tottenham commit their fullbacks in build up to center of the pitch, which leaves van de Ven and Romero on an island. Newcastle once they won the ball were finding Isak and Gordon almost every time and getting 1 v 1 or 2 v 2 transition breaks and they scored twice off of them. For the match, Newcastle had 7 counterattacking shots, which was tied for the most in a Premier League match last season and they also ended up creating 2.8 expected goals.
What Newcastle do out of possession is going to be interesting. Against Bournemouth they opted for their usual 4-3-3 high press and had pretty good success with it, but they are in an interesting predicament having to start Dan Burn and Emil Krafth as their center back pairing. When Newcastle press high, there is no team more physical in the Premier League, which is a huge advantage they have over Spurs.
In that 4-0 win they were also incredibly dangerous on set pieces, which is still a huge weakness for Tottenham. Newcastle had the third-best xG per set piece last season and scored off a corner in that match at St. James Park.
Tottenham
Tottenham are going to play right into what Newcastle want, which is a high-event type match. They are going to try to build out of the back in their 2-3-5 shape and try to put as much pressure on Newcastle as possible. They did beat Newcastle 4-1 at home and created 3.8 expected goals when Newcastle were going through a rough period of injuries and fixture pile up.
What will be interesting to see is what Newcastle do out of possession. If they choose to not press high, they will typically settle in a 4-5-1 mid block, which was not successful at all when they played Tottenham in that 4-1 defeat, as they conceded 3.8 expected goals. Whatever Newcastle decide to do, it's going to create a high-event style match, which is what Tottenham want as well.
If Spurs are able to play through Newcastle's high press, it will give them overload scenarios when they break towards Newcastle's goal, which is massive advantage with Newcastle playing a makeshift center back pairing.
Dominic Solanke will be out for this match, which is a blow, but Spurs still averaged 1.77 xG per 90 minutes last season with Heung Min Son as their number nine, so it’s not as big of a blow as people may think.
Newcastle vs Tottenham
Prediction
The way these two teams play, this is going to be a very high-event type match. The first meeting featured 4.5 expected goals, while the second featured 3.6. Tottenham are going to try to build out of the back and one of two things are going to happen. Newcastle are going to deploy their high press and pin them in or they are going to sit back in their 4-5-1, which is going to allow Tottenham space in between the lines and eventually create a lot of chances.
If Newcastle decide to press high either they are going turn Tottenham over, which will lead to easy transition opportunities or they will play through it and have numerical advantage consistently running at Newcastle's net.
Newcastle are always so good at St. James Park and last season was no different. They averaged 2.44 xG per 90 minutes at home, while Tottenham allowed close to two expected goals per 90 minutes away from home.
I have 4.1 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
