Newcastle vs West Ham Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -130 |
| West Ham Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -223 / +164 |
Newcastle and West Ham are separated by just four points in the Premier League table entering their matchup against one another to kick off match week 30 of the season. The Hammers are in seventh and in pole position for another European place, while the chasing pack of Newcastle, Brighton, Wolves and even Chelsea will be aiming to usurp David Moyes' Hammers.
The market hasn't bought much into West Ham all season long, as the Hammers are consistently priced like a bottom six team in the league. Their underlying defensive metrics have been the main cause for alarm with West Ham, as the Magpies should create plenty of chances and more than two expected goals in my xG projections.
You could make a case that West Ham's attack is also undervalued by the market given the lacking depth and the minutes they had to play without three of their best attacking talents. Goal scoring is way up in the English top flight, and no matchup better encapsulates that than this matchup of two conventionally 'defense first' teams with a total at three.
Newcastle
The Magpies have some mixed injury news entering this matchup with West Ham. While Kieran Trippier and Tino Livramento are both expected back in the squad on Saturday — listed at 75% at Premier Injuries — they'll be without center back Sven Botman for the remainder of the season. Key midfield ball winner Joelinton is also still injured along with top goalkeeper Nick Pope. The spine of the Newcastle defense has struggled to stay fit for most of the season and returning full backs are unlikely to solve the underlying issues that have plagued the Magpies.
Newcastle's biggest issue this season is conceding high quality chances on the break. Since December, only Luton Town are allowing a higher expected goals per shot. They've conceded the second-most big scoring chances and rank 18th in xGA per match allowed as a result. They've been surprisingly poor defending set pieces — 19th in xGA per set piece allowed — and all of this is problematic against a West Ham attack that projects well on set pieces, has a ton of size and is quite good on the break attack wise. The defensive combination of Dan Burn, Fabian Schar and Jamaal Lescelles has been beaten in space far too regularly this year.
Last season, the Magpies' physicality and pressing ability helped to protect the back line, while Newcastle were also extremely conservative in possession. This year, the Magpies are still scoring goals at a near elite rate and the club is relatively fit in attack.
Harvey Barnes is expected to return to the attack alongside Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak. Gordon and Barnes are both producing 0.5 xG + xA per match, while Isak's 0.7 xG per 90 is among the upper echelon of PL forwards.
West Ham
West Ham enter this match with a near clean bill of health. Edson Alvarez is suspended due to yellow card accumulation and both Maxwel Cornet and Mohamed Kudus are listed as questionable to play in this match. Alvarez has been an excellent ball winner in the middle of the park as a partial replacement for the loss of Declan Rice to Arsenal, but there has been major fall off for West Ham's defense otherwise Without Alvarez, there's little protection for the back line and the bend but don't break approach from Moyes defensively has broken a lot more than it is supposed to this season.
The Hammers remain quite passive out of possession with the third lowest pressing intensity in the league. It's designed to allow possession in non dangerous areas, but prevent big scoring chances and box shots with no defenders in the way. West Ham's average xG per shot allowed is below average, they rank 15th in xGA per match and rely on their individual attacking talent to make up for it.
The four man attacking group of James Ward-Prowse, Kudus, Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta are all producing at least 0.4 goals plus assists per match.
Newcastle vs West Ham
Prediction
The current state of both clubs is that both are bottom six defenses in the Premier League. Only the three new promoted teams have conceded more xGA than West Ham, and Newcastle scored 14 goals in four matches played against the bottom three.
Fully healthy West Ham are an above average Premier League attack with a bottom five defense, and the market hasn't properly caught up to Newcastle totals for months now. My projections have 3.41 goals in this match and I'd bet over 3 at -120 or better.
