Newcastle vs Wolves Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -110 |
| Wolves Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
Newcastle look to rebound from a blowout loss at Arsenal over the weekend when they host Wolves.
They are going through a difficult period a the moment where they are getting results but are playing nowhere near the level that got them into the top four last year. Their defense has fallen off a cliff, which was a big staple of their success under Eddie Howe. With that being said, this a great opportunity to get all three points and back into the race for a European spot.
Gary O'Neill's Wolves are flying right now. They are coming off three straight wins including a 1-0 win over Brighton in the FA Cup on Wednesday. They are up to eighth place in the table and have pulled off upset after upset and look primed to pull off another one on Saturday.
Read on for my Newcastle vs Wolves prediction.
Newcastle
Newcastle got demolished by Arsenal on Saturday, but this is going to be a completely different opponent and one that I am not sure Newcastle is going to be able to stop.
They have decided to be incredibly aggressive in their pressing structure by bringing their back line high up the pitch to man mark the opposing attackers. This has caused transition based teams like Luton, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth to all find space in behind the last line of defense because Newcastle’s back line is slow. Since they made this switch to their pressing structure against Aston Villa they have conceded 10.3 expected goals and 10 big scoring chances in five matches.
Not only will Wolves be able beat Newcastle in transition, but they will have a huge advantage on set pieces. Newcastle are 18th in xG allowed per set piece and conceded two set piece goals to Arsenal over the weekend. Wolves scored a goal off a set piece against Newcastle in the previous meeting and are a top 10 set piece offense in the Premier League.
The Newcastle offense hasn't really slowed down, as they've been pretty deadly in transition. Getting Harvey Barnes back has been a big boost as Newcastle has scored 10 goals in the four matches he's played in. Barnes is also getting close to three shots per 90 minutes, which is huge for Newcastle who isn't getting the same type of shot production from Anthony Gordon or Miguel Almirón.
Wolves
What Gary O'Neill has done with Wolves is turned them into a very diverse tactical team. The reason they've been so good against the top teams is the amount of different defensive structures have frustrated possession dominant teams and have been incredibly good at counter attacking from deep positions.
With the ball carrying ability and pace of Pedro Neto, Wolves are incredibly dangerous against anybody, especially Newcastle who is going to be very aggressive with their counter-pressing. Wolves are in the middle of the pack in terms of PPDA and high turnovers forced, but they've been incredibly effective when they do force a high turnover, scoring six goals off of them this season, which is second most in the Premier League.
Even though they've been good against build up teams. What was pretty alarming from Wolves defensively in the previous meeting against Newcastle was just how easy it was for Newcastle to play through the middle of the pitch. There were countless times in build up that Wolves’ zonal mid block wouldn’t cover either a runner or midfielder drifting into the center, which allowed Newcastle to carve them right up.
I know Gary O’Neill has done a masterful job tactically, but Wolves' defensive numbers aren’t that impressive. They are allowing 1.51 npxG per 90 minutes and are in the bottom half of the Premier League in just about every category defensively. They also have over-performed, allowing 34 non-penalty goals off of 39.3 non-penalty expected goals.
Newcastle vs Wolves
Betting Pick & Prediction
Given the way Newcastle have been playing lately, this has the makings of a back and forth type of match. Wolves are most likely to play a passive defensive block, but their defensive numbers haven't been great and given the space they allowed in the middle against Newcastle in the previous meeting, the Magpies could put the ball in the back of the net multiple times.
Wolves have been so good at attacking from deep and hitting teams in transition. They put four goals past Chelsea, three against Manchester United and two against Tottenham playing this style, so they are going to have chances running at Newcastle's slow back line. Not to mention, they have been an outstanding team on set pieces, which is an area where Newcastle struggle defensively.
I have 3.78 goals projected for this match so I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3 (-102 via bet365)
