Newcastle vs. West Ham Odds
Newcastle Odds | -167 |
West Ham Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110 / -138) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+105 / -143) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Newcastle booked their first trip to Wembley since 1999 on Tuesday with a 2-1 win against Southampton at home to advance to the EFL Cup final. Now sitting comfortably in the top four, the Magpies are in a natural let down spot this weekend at home against a desperate and underrated West Ham side that is trying to fight off relegation.
West Ham manager David Moyes' needed a win against Everton to save his job after the Hammers started the season with just four wins in the first 19 league matches. The Hammers are one point above Bournemouth and currently sit in 16th place in the Premier League. Their underlying numbers tell a very different story and paint a much rosier picture of the true talent and performance of Moyes' squad.
From a sell high and buy low market perspective, the Hammers are underpriced in this Saturday headliner match.
Newcastle Dealing With Injury Issues
Newcastle will be without both Bruno Guimaraes and Alexander Isak due to suspension and injury, which takes away the best midfield and striker for the side. Even with Callum Wilson in the lineup as a plenty capable striker, we’ve reached the top of the market on Newcastle.
Guimaraes is second in passes into the penalty area for this Newcastle side and he's also top two in tackles won per 90 minutes. His partnership with Joelinton is a very functional passing and ball winning midfield and his absence is a notable one for this Newcastle side.
Eddie Howe had experimented with playing Joelinton as a winger in recent matches but I'd expect him to form a midfield three with Sean Longstaff and Joe Willock without Guimaraes in the lineup.
It could also be a debut for new signing Anthony Gordon, but the hype surrounding him as a player has not been backed up by his production at Everton. Miguel Almiron is in the midst of a career season too, but this Newcastle team isn't nearly as talented going forward as Arsenal, for example. A month ago, Arsenal were -1 at home against West Ham.
It's a sign of how high the market is on the Magpies that they're this big of a favorite at home.
West Ham United Better Than Results Indicate
The Hammers are in the relegation battle based on their number of points, but West Ham remains elite defensively. Moyes’ side is fourth in xGA in the entire league and has positive regression coming for its attack that has massively underperformed xG at this point in the season. They’re also capable of playing through pressure, ranking eighth in opponent passes per defensive action.
That's a major key against Howe's Newcastle, which has done a ton of excellent work forcing high turnovers and pressing high up the pitch. The Magpies have forced the most high turnovers of any team in the league. West Ham are decent enough at breaking through pressure that I don't expect them to be penned in completely and they should find some success in transitional moments.
The Hammers are expecting to have new signing Danny Ings available off the bench on Saturday behind starter Michail Antonio. West Ham have had problems scoring goals with just 17 in 20 league matches, but all underlying numbers like shots, box entries and xG suggest they're a league average attacking unit overall. They have 25.2 xG, a suggestion that the attack is due for positive regression in coming months.
As a unit, the attack has managed to create at least 1 xG in seven straight matches across all competitions. Newcastle's defense has been elite at home this year, but West Ham are trending the right way in attack too.
Newcastle vs. West Ham United Pick
Newcastle settled for a goalless draw with Crystal Palace after the Eagles sat deep and forced them to break down a low block. Like Palace, West Ham are quite passive and sits deep out of possession. I expect Moyes to rely on his sturdy defense and dare to Newcastle to shoot a bunch from distance.
It's hard to get margin and create big scoring chances that way and now Newcastle don't have their best midfielder.
The Magpies could be flat at home in this spot and trusting this attack to sustain their early season performances is a big bet on players that have performed well above career norms thus far. This is a better sell-high spot on Newcastle as an inflated home favorite.
I'd bet West Ham +1 at -130 or better or +0.5 at +130 or better.
