Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Odds
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +750 |
| Arsenal Odds | -250 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150 / +115 |
Arsenal risk falling out of realistic title contention if they can't take all three points on their Tuesday night trip to a Nottingham Forest side that is showing signs of life under new manager Nuno Espirito Santo.
The Gunners begin the weekend in third on goal difference behind Manchester City — who have a game in hand — and five points back of leaders Liverpool. But Mikel Arteta's side has at least halted their recent slide, thumping Crystal Palace 5-0 in their last league match to snap a three-match winless run.
Meanwhile, Forest have improved considerably since Espirito Santo relieved Steve Cooper just before Christmas, winning two of their last four league matches with a victory at Newcastle and home to Manchester United.
While Arsenal have already been knocked out of the FA Cup, Forest will face a fourth round replay following a 0-0 draw at Bristol City this Saturday. The Gunners narrowly beat the Trees 2-1 at the Emirates on the opening day of the league campaign.
Read on for my Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction.
Nottingham Forest
Striker Taiwo Awoniyi's long-term groin injury loomed large over the end of Cooper's tenure at the City Ground, with Forest scoring only three times in Cooper's final five games after the Nigerian international had been shelved.
That attacking form has reversed under Espirito Santo — whose team has scored multiple goals in all but one game they've played — and is the main reason the results have improved on the River Trent.
Whether it's a sustainable improvement is less clear. Forest have created 1.2 xG or fewer in three of their four games against first-division opposition since the takeover. The lone exception was a 3.5 xG outburst (and 3-1 win) against a battered and short-handed Newcastle side at the end of a punishing fall.
What Espirito Santo has unearthed is far better production from striker Chris Wood, who was usually the second choice when Awoniyi was healthy, but has scored six goals in all competitions since the managerial switch.
And although Wood is also overachieving his xG in that short spell, he has been consistently active around the goal, with at least one shot in seven straight appearances. He's totaled 17 total shots and nine efforts on target in that outburst.
Forest will still be without roughly a half dozen contributors who have been called into duty at the African Cup of Nations. But Awoniyi has rejoined training and could potentially see his first action since mid-November.
Arsenal
Arsenal's three-game slide was a case of two unlucky 2-0 home defeats sandwiched by only one truly poor performance — a 2-1 loss at Fulham in which the hosts controlled proceedings to a surprising degree.
And while the 5-0 victory over Crystal Palace last time out was at least somewhat expected, the most significant development may have been the two very late goals from Gabriel Martinelli.
While those late tallies had no bearing on any outcome that day, Arteta will hope they are what is needed to get the Brazilian attacker on a run of good form.
Martinelli's 15 goals were tops for Arsenal a season ago, but he had only two in the league before those twin tallies off the substitute's bench against the Eagles. His 0.7 xG value in that game was his second-highest of this season and only the third when he'd been on the end of even 0.5 xG worth of chances.
Given how much more dynamic Martinelli looked, Arteta could be tempted to ride him in the role of super-sub a bit longer. It was his second time scoring as a sub in four league appearances, though he also has three goals as a starter this season — two coming in the UEFA Champions League.
Midfielder Declan Rice and defender Gabriel Dos Santos both departed early against Palace with injuries. Only the former is expected to recover in time for Tuesday's clash.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Prediction
It's probably too soon to tell whether what we've seen from Forest of late is a true material improvement or simply the proverbial new-coach bump. But even Cooper's version of this squad has been consistently difficult to play against at home.
And while Arsenal have acquitted themselves well in terms of results on their travels, their away games are rarely comfortable affairs. They have only one win in all competitions on their travels by more than one goal. Forest have yet to play most of the big boys at the City Ground this season. But they were impressive in such games last season.
So I think the move here is to play a larger wager on Nottingham Forest to cover a 1.5 goal spread at -117 odds and an implied 53.9% probability, and a smaller wager on the Gunners to win by exactly one goal at +280 odds and an implied 26.3% probability.
The former wager has cashed in six of Arsenal's seven away matches against teams in the bottom half of the table, and the latter in five of seven.
