Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Odds
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +320 |
| Aston Villa Odds | -118 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +110 |
Aston Villa could climb as high as third in the Premier League table with a win on Sunday at Nottingham Forest. Unai Emery's side lost 5-1 on the opening weekend at Newcastle and has been one of the most consistent sides in the league since, including four wins and a draw in its last five matches.
The Villans have had a vastly different profile when playing at home versus when traveling on the road. Some of that has to do with opponent — they've played Chelsea, Newcastle and Liverpool away for starters — but the tactics have been considerably more passive out of possession in these situations.
Now the Villans will travel on the road to face the league's most passive teams thus far, Steve Cooper's Nottingham Forest. The Trees haven't won any of their last five matches and they've got the lowest passes per defensive action and most final third entries allowed in the EPL.
Despite the Trees recent struggles, this is the time to buy them as Villa is a vulnerable favorite on the road because of its middling defensive numbers.
Here is how my Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa prediction will look.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest have produced the second-lowest event matches in the entire league to this point. With a total of 26 expected goals across 10 matches, only Crystal Palace have created and allowed fewer combined expected goals thus far this season.
They refused to press Liverpool at all last week and still managed to give up two goals in transition moments — one of them on a howler from goalkeeper Matt Turner. The 3.2 xGA conceded to Liverpool on the road was the most they'd allowed all season and the only match they conceded more than 2.2 NPxG.
Forest’s defensive metrics have taken a clear step forward and they’ve upgraded in goal. It’s helped dramatically as they have improved their goal prevention unit overall. Forest's three goalies last season combined for -7.9 post-shot expected goals. Turner has been a plus shot stopper his entire MLS and international USMNT career.
Cooper will also have his first choice center backs fit as Willy Boly and Moussa Niakhate both returned to the starting XI last week. One major reason for the improved Forest defense has been the increased ball winning in midfield from Orel Mangala and Ibrahim Sangaré. There's not a ton of forward ball progression in the group beyond Morgan Gibbs-White, but it's become a really solid ball stopping unit.
Aston Villa
It’s hard to see how Aston Villa can keep getting away with these subpar defensive metrics. The Villans don’t press the ball out of possession, they don’t keep much possession when playing away from home and their defenders aren’t plus defenders when you look at them on paper or in their underlying stats. As a result of this, the Villans are 16th in big scoring chances conceded, 16th in passes per defensive action and 11th in non-penalty expected goals allowed.
Villa and Forest have played similar overall schedules to this point and they've conceded about the same number of non-penalty xG. One team is sitting in fifth and pushing for the top four and is a road favorite, and I'm not convinced that is justified.
It's true that Villa doesn't allow a ton of shot quantity, and that the volume would normally be more predictive than conceding a handful of big chances. But when you watch how Emery sets up this team, it totally makes sense. Ollie Watkins is in the midst of a career year from an xG and a finishing perspective too. And while Watkins is a solid forward, the perception of the Villa attack is at its total ceiling with this price.
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
Prediction
When Villa play opponents with quality midfield ball progressors and a striker who’s able to get in behind or attack in transition effectively, they get exposed. The return of Awoniyi is exactly what Nottingham Forest need to cause chaos for the Villa backline. Awoniyi isn’t getting high shot volume, but his 1-2 excellent shots per game usually come from close range and in high danger situations.
Awoniyi is 50-50 to start this game because of his injury situation, but I like Forest either way and would look to bet the team total over when he comes off the bench if they're not playing from ahead.
