Nottingham Forest vs. Bournemouth Odds
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +175 |
| Bournemouth Odds | +155 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -111 / -111 |
Nuno Espirito Santo makes his managerial debut for Nottingham Forest on Saturday when the Trees host Andoni Iraola's resurgent Bournemouth squad at the City Ground.
Forest fans were behind Espirito Santo predecessor Steve Cooper until the very end. Ownership was a different story. After the Welshman's tenure was briefly prolonged by a 1-1 draw at Wolverhampton Wanderers, it ultimately came to an end in a 2-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur last weekend.
Iraola was oddsmakers' favorite to be the first Premier League manager sacked for a considerable stretch this season. But he's turned the Cherries around in somewhat remarkable fashion, with the South Coasters unbeaten and winning four of their last five.
Bournemouth edged the series last season, earning a 3-2 win at Forest in September 2022 before playing to a 1-1 draw at home last January.
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Nottingham Forest
There's a relatively strong possibility Cooper would still be in the job if he had Nigerian striker Taiwo Awoniyi at his disposal.
Forgive me if it's repetitive, but it's important to understand given that the Trees' scoring leader with four goals hasn't played since early November: Since Forest's promotion to the Premier League, the Trees are 9-9-6 (W-L-D) when Awoniyi starts, and just 3-18-10 when he doesn't.
So Espirito Santo's first job will be trying to find a way to score more goals than Cooper could with limited talent in attack after Brennan Johnson moved to Spurs in the summer.
Morgan Gibbs-White is still probably the key man, and there's hope former Liverpool attacker Divock Origi can regain his past form. New Zealand International Chris Wood has three goals but hasn't found the net since October, and two of his tallies have come against newly promoted Luton Town.
On the other end of the pitch, U.S. national team goalkeeper Matt Turner could be heading back to the bench after he erred on both Tottenham goals in his last appearance. The worse mistake came on Spurs' second, when he first played the ball to Tottenham's Daniel Kulusevski, then failed to push away a shot he should have stopped as Kulisevski put the game out of reach.
Odisseas Vlachodimos hasn't exactly been good when he's had the opportunities in the net, with some of the worst shot-stopping metrics in the league this season. But he hasn't been prone to the same kind of attention-drawing errors.
Bournemouth
Critics were pushing Iraola to be more pragmatic and less press-centric after a start to life in the Premier League that featured only three points earned in the first nine games.
Fortunately for the Cherries, he didn't alter much, and eventually his players adjusted to the demands of his system. The result is a run in which his side has outscored opponents 12-3 while posting a 10.6 to 4.1 cumulative expected goals advantage.
Part of this is probably just a reflection of a learning curve. Some of it might also be due to the Cherries' elimination from the League Cup, which has allowed Iraola's side to focus solely on the league for now.
Dominic Solanke has already set a career-best Premier League total with eight goals through 16 matches, including four in his last five games.
One unknown is how the events of last weekend will affect the squad. Bournemouth were tied 1-1 with Luton Town when Luton captain Tom Lockyer suffered an on-field cardiac arrest and collapsed in the 59th minute. The game will be replayed in full at a date to be determined later.
Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth
Prediction
In normal circumstances, this would be a scenario where you'd play Forest comfortably on account of the new-coach bump.
Given the reality on the ground — Cooper's popularity plus Awoniyi's absence — the range of potential reactions to his dismissal feels much wider. I think it's probably still the move here given the price available. But what I feel most confident in is that Bournemouth is the more reliable attacking team, having scored in all but one of their away matches while Forest has conceded in all but one of its home fixtures.
So if you are going to take a shot at the Trees earning a result on an emotional day, you should probably tie it to the Cherries scoring anyway.
My play is a same-game parlay on Forest to earn at least a point and both teams to score at +145 odds and an implied 40.8% probability. It's a bet based on the moment rather than a body of work, and not one I'd put a large amount on.
Another consideration is Solanke to score any time if you can find him at +200 odds or better. He's good value for his eight goals, with 8.5 xG this season, but has typically done more damage against sides higher in the table.
Pick: Forest or draw AND both teams to score, same-game parlay (+145, BetMGM)
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