Nottingham Forest vs Brighton Odds
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +200 |
| Brighton Odds | +120 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Brighton will be travelling to The City Ground this weekend where they will take on Steve Cooper and Nottingham Forest. Both sides will be thinking of this match as a potential three points.
Nottingham Forest currently sit 14th in the Premier League with 13 points over their first 12 matches. They are coming off a 3-2 defeat away from home prior to the international break at the hands of West Ham. They will be desperate for all the points they can muster at The City Ground because they have been extremely vulnerable away from home throughout both this season and last.
Brighton currently sit eighth in the league with 19 points and could go as high as sxth with a win in this one. De Zerbi’s men are unbeaten in their last five matches, but have drawn their last three in the league to Sheffield United, Everton and Fulham.
Let’s get into my prediction on Nottingham Forest vs. Brighton.
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Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest have gotten off to a solid start for a team that nearly got relegated last season. They have somewhat of a cushion from the relegation zone right now, and they can thank their form at The City Ground for that.
Forest have picked up nine of their 13 points at home so far this season, winning two and drawing three at The City Ground. They have yet to lose a match at home this season. In fact, the last match that Forest lost at home was all the way back in April to Manchester United. Their xGD/90 at home is right around even throughout these first five matches.
They have complied an xG of 5.9 over those first 5 matches, which is quite low, but due to efficient finishing by Wood, Elanga, Awoniyi and Aina, they have been able to put together some quality wins on their home turf. They really could have put a few more points together had their goalkeeper play been a bit better.
Both Turner and Vlachodimos have a negative PSxG number, which can be expected for a team that concedes a lot of shots that does not have an elite goalkeeper. However, whichever goalie Cooper decides to play against Brighton needs to be on his A game if Forest want anything out of this one. Brighton will control possession and find space for shots in this match so Forest will need to play up to par with their low-block defensive style of play.
Brighton
Over the last month and a half, Brighton have struggled to pick up many points in their matches. They have just four points in their last 6 league matches. This is real reason for concern for the Seagulls after they had such a promising start to this Premier League campaign.
I am unsure whether they have been slightly unlucky, or if they have been prioritizing their Europa League fixtures over their league matches, but something has to change quick if they want to finish in a European spot again.
Away from the Amex this season, Brighton have been bang average. They have picked up seven points in their seven matches away from home but have actually struggled to create many big chances. They have created less than 1 xG per match away from home, a huge contrast from their home form, where they create nearly 2 xG per match.
The dip in form that Brighton have had can be attributed to a few things. Number one – extremely poor shot stopping abilities from both their goalkeepers. Steele and Verbruggen have a PSxG +/- of -2.5 and -1.4 respectively. That is nowhere near good enough for a team with Champions League aspirations. Number two – injuries. The losses of Estupinián and Solly March are massive, and there are uncertainties around the fitness of Milner, Dunk and Lamptey for this match as well. They will also be without Mahmoud Dahoud due to suspension.
Nottingham Forest vs Brighton
Prediction
Unless one of these sides score early, it is safe to say that Brighton will be controlling possession and passing it around the Forest box for the majority of the match. Forest will be trying to break quick with players like Elanga, Awoniyi and Gibbs-White.
This is where Forest want to be, and they want to play at The City Ground. They are obviously very confident in front of their home fans and expect all three points every time they play there. Brighton have struggled in the league as of late and it has gone under the radar. They have not won a Premier League match since September 24th, over two months ago from this match.
I see very little value on either side in this match, which is why I will be riding the hot hand of Nottingham Forest at home. They have not been losing at home, have far less of an injury problem than Brighton and Brighton have not won a match in two months.
I will be playing Nottingham Forest at +0.25 at -120 via DraftKings for this one.
